Bowling with Underdogs

Another college football bowl season is upon us, so we decided to take a look at the past performances of underdogs in recent years. Last season, dogs reported home at a profitable 17-13, or 56.7 percent clip against the spread. This continued a very solid winning pattern for bowl underdogs, as they are now 107-72-3, or 58.6 percent ATS since 1999! The dogs turned a profit in five of these six seasons, losing only in 2003 when they were just 13-17-1 against the number.
As good as that six-year percentage is for the whole population, it was even better if we focused on a few specific conference bowl tendencies. As a first step, we took a look at how each conference did in an underdog role over this time, and the results follow along with the qualifying dogs for this season.

CONFERENCES AS BOWL UNDERDOGS SINCE 1999

Pac-10: 13-1, 92.9% ATS (NONE) Big Ten: 18-9, 66.7% ATS (Northwestern-Sun Bowl, Iowa-Outback, Wisconsin-Capital One)*-SEC: 17-9, 65.4% ATS (Alabama-Cotton)**-ACC: 14-8, 63.6% ATS (Boston College-MPC Computers, Virginia-Music City, Florida State-Orange)Mountain West: 9-6, 60.0% ATS (BYU-Las Vegas, Colorado State-Poinsettia)

*-Note there is currently no line on the Peach Bowl. If Miami Florida is favored, LSU is an SEC qualifier.

**-Note there are currently no lines on the Champs Sports and Peach Bowls. If Colorado is favored in the Champs Sports, Clemson is an ACC qualifier; if LSU is favored in the Peach,

Miami is an ACC qualifier.

The cumulative record of these five conferences as bowl underdogs is 71-33, 68.3 percent ATS! We were obviously initially excited when we saw the performance of the Pac-10 underdogs, but our enthusiasm was quickly tempered when we found that none of the five Pac-10 Bowl participants this year are dogs. Still, the other four conferences combine for a fine 58-32, 64.4 percent mark, and they appear to provide an ample amount of betting opportunities this year.
The next thing we did in our quest for the best possible winning percentage was see how each conference did as a favorite over this time, with the obvious intent being to fade these teams. Here are those results, as well as the qualifying plays for this season:

CONFERENCES AS BOWL FAVORITES SINCE 1999

Big Ten: 2-11, 15.4% ATS (Nebraska-Alamo, Virginia-Music City, Notre Dame-Fiesta, Florida State-Orange)Pac-10: 7-12, 36.8% ATS (BYU-Las Vegas, Rutgers-Insight, Oklahoma-Holiday, Northwestern-Sun, Texas-Rose)*-SEC: 11-18, 37.9% ATS (Missouri-Independence, Iowa-Outback, Wisconsin-Capital One, West Virginia-Sugar)**-Big 12: 16-22, 42.1% ATS (Houston-Fort Worth, Alabama-Cotton)

*-Note there is currently no line on the Peach Bowl. If LSU is favored, Miami qualifies as an SEC fade.

**-Note there is currently no line on the Champs Sports Bowl. If Colorado is favored, Clemson qualifies as a Big 12 fade.

The cumulative record of these four conferences as bowl favorites is 36-63 ATS for a very nice FADE percentage of 63.6 percent. The Big Ten has been far and away the worst performing conference as a favorite the last six years, so we are pleased to see that the conference has four Bowl favorites this year.

A close look at this data shows that there are SIX double qualifiers this year from both angles, with the potential for two more. The six definite dual qualifiers that merit a long hard look are BYU (Las Vegas Bowl-12/22), Virginia (Music City Bowl-12/30), Northwestern (Sun Bowl-12/30), Iowa (Outback Bowl-1/2), Wisconsin (Capital One Bowl-1/2) and Florida State (Orange Bowl-1/3). Additional double qualifiers should they be UNDERDOGS would be Clemson (Champs Sports Bowl-12/27) and Miami Florida (Peach Bowl-12/30).

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