NHL Notebook Nov 24, 2005

After recently losing a game in which the team I selected dominated play and doubled it's opponent's total number of shots, I received an email asking me what is the most important ingredient necessary to win in today's NHL.

I responded by saying that I didn't have a definitive answer. Obviously, the key to winning is outscoring the opposition. However, pinpointing a single specific factor which enables a team to score more goals than its opponent is not so obvious.

Is it more important to score the most goals or to allow the fewest? Is it more important to have the best penalty-killing or to have the best power-play? How relevant are shots on goal?
Let's take a closer look at the top-10 teams in a number of statistical categories and see if we can answer some of the above questions and determine the secret formula for success.

GOALS
Team Goals Per Game League Rank

Ottawa* 4.7 2
Philadelphia 4.4 9
Colorado 4.0 13
Los Angeles 3.8 4
Toronto 3.7 11
Detroit 3.6 1
Carolina 3.6 3
Dallas 3.6 10
Atlanta 3.6 26
Buffalo 3.4 17

*Note: The Sens would have the most points but have played fewer games than most teams

GOALS AGAINST

Team Allowed Per Game League Rank

Ottawa 2.1 2
Minnesota 2.4 19
Detroit 2.5 1
NY Rangers 2.5 6
Phoenix 2.6 14
Calgary 2.6 12
Nashville 2.7 8
Los Angeles 2.9 4
Carolina 2.9 3
Vancouver 2.9 7
Anaheim 2.9 24

SHOTS ON GOAL

Team Shots On Goal League Rank

Ottawa 36.1 2
Philadelphia 33.8 9
San Jose 32.8 21
Boston 32.7 22
Atlanta 32.6 26
Montreal 32.0 5
Anaheim 32.0 24
Detroit 31.9 1
Tampa Bay 31.8 16
Buffalo 31.7 17

POWER-PLAY GOALS MADE

Team P.P. G.P.G. League Rank

Atlanta 1.75 26
Toronto 1.57 11
Philadelphia 1.47 9
Detroit 1.41 1
Buffalo 1.35 17
Colorado 1.35 13
Ottawa 1.28 2
New Jersey 1.25 20
Vancouver 1.24 7
Montreal 1.24 5
Pittsburgh 1.24 25

POWER-PLAY GOALS ALLOWED

Team P.P. G.A.P.G League Rank

Minnesota 0.65 19
New Jersey 0.80 20
Tampa Bay 0.82 16
NY Rangers 0.87 6
Buffalo 0.90 17
Colorado 0.90 13
Los Angeles 0.90 4
Detroit 0.91 1
Nashville 0.94 8
San Jose 1.00 21
Ottawa 1.00 2

There are many other statistics I could have analyzed, including goaltending, power-play conversion percentage, the percentage of shots and/or power-plays converted, and the percentage of penalties killed, to name just a few.

Still, I feel that those results would have demonstrated the same conclusion. There isn't necessarily a single factor which has the biggest impact on success in the NHL.

One dimensional teams, like the defensive-minded Minnesota Wild or the offensive-minded Atlanta Thrashers, can be competitive. However, the best teams in the league, like the Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings, are extremely balanced and perform well in virtually all facets of the game.