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Welcome to my blog which deals with mixed martial arts betting and preview with a detailed analysis on the world of MMA. This blogs covers anything relating to the UFC, Strikeforce, Dreams or any other MMA organization.

Friday, January 06, 2006

NFL Post season Guide

To get you all kick-started for this weekend, some interesting NFL playoff trends appear below. Please do not use these trends as a stand-alone premise for your NFL playoff wagering!
Since the 1990 season, home teams who are seeded three and four versus the wildcard if they played their last game at home are 24-7 SU and 20-10-1 ATS (66.7%). New England and Tampa Bay are qualifiers here.

Pay close attention to the winners from these four matchups this weekend. Since 1995, teams that advance out of the Wild Card round are only 17-26-1 ATS in the next round. Teams that won their wild card game on the road have had it especially tough, going just 4-8 ATS.
With that out of the way let’s see how playoff teams perform in certain situations.

Home teams in the NFL playoffs are a profitable 129-92 ATS (58.3%). If these own backyard teams have failed to cover the spread in their last two previous games, these homers zip to 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%). With those two parameters applied and our home team is off a non-division game, then these home teams are near automatic plays with an 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS record including 8-0 SU and ATS in that role provided their foe is off a home game.

Home teams in Wild Card and Conference Semifinal games are 20-8-1 ATS since 1986 entering off a SU loss in their last game of the regular season versus an opponent off a SU win.
Play on home teams in the playoffs if playing their third straight home game and the pointspread is less than eight points. This trend is 24-11 ATS since 1982.

Home teams in divisional playoffs are 24-12-2 ATS last 38 tries.

Over the last 21 seasons, home teams in divisional playoffs are 46-35-3 ATS (56.8%). If the home team has more wins than their opponent, they are 42-31-2 ATS (57.5%). If the home team has allowed 20 or less points over their last two games combined, 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%). If the home team has allowed 21 points or more over their last two games the record goes to 35-16-1 ATS (68.6%). In that set, and the road team had a winning ATS record on the season, then these home teams rocket to 25-6-1 ATS (80.6%) including 20-2-1 ATS (90.9%) since 1987.
Playoff home underdogs are 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS since 1980, including 8-1 SU in the wildcard round.

Playoff road teams off back-to-back home games and won SU and ATS in their last game are 9-27 SU and 12-22-2 ATS. If our "play against" visitor was a dog last game, this situation is 0-6 ATS.

Play on road dogs getting between 3 1/2 to 10 points after allowing opponents 400+ total yards in back-to-back games. That is a 45-18 ATS system.

Playoff teams playing their third straight road game are 6-32 straight up since 1980 (0-18 since 1990) and 11-26 ATS since 1980 (1-9 ATS since 1996).

Dome teams are 10-39 ATS overall in playoff games played outdoors including 2-8 ATS in conference finals.

Road teams in the playoffs entering off a SU & ATS win are 5-16 ATS if they were a losing team on the season last year, including 3-10 ATS if they are off BB SU and ATS wins.

Road dogs priced between 3 1/2 to 10 points inclusive who are off an upset win as an underdog and has a .600 to .750 winning percentage on the season versus a winning team are 40-19 ATS since 1983.

Road teams who won and covered in a playoff game and allowed 24 or more points in that game are 0-15 SU & 1-13-1 ATS their next playoff game, including 0-9 SU & ATS if they won as a dog. In addition, playoff teams who scored 36 or more points are 0-8 SU & ATS if they are on the road in their next game.

Good bets

No.1 NFC seeds are 13-3 ATS in their 1st playoff game.

Rested playoff teams off a straight-up loss in their last game are 19-9 ATS.

The road team is 8-4 ATS over the last six postseasons in Conference Championship games. They are also 6-6 straight up and have split the two Conference Championship games in each of the past six years.

Teams playing in the postseason after missing out on the postseason for three years are 20-5 ATS since 1994.

Playoff road teams that won the last playoff game by 14 or more points. 22-8 ATS since 1990
Teams playing in their first postseason game that failed to cover in the last two weeks of the regular season are 19-8 ATS since 1990.

Teams in the postseason who had three or more Blowout wins in the regular season versus a team that did not have three or more blowout win in the regular season are a blistering 30-13-4 ATS since 1994. (A blowout win is by 20 points or more).

Super Bowl teams who have won and covered each of their last three games are 11-2 ATS if they scored less than 35 points in their last game, including 7-0 ATS if the opponent has not covered each of their last two games.

In the history of the Super Bowl the team with the higher win percentage is 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS if their opponent won its conference title game by 17 or more points.

Since 1997, playoff games with an opening total under 40 have seen the ‘under’ go 15-6.
Since 1985, there have been 20 Super Bowl games. Of these, 15 were played with two weeks off, while five were played with no rest. Of the five played the weekend after the Conference Championships, four went 'Under' the total. But 13 of the 15 played two weeks later went 'Over' the total.

Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best