Mixed Martial Arts

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Welcome to my blog which deals with mixed martial arts betting and preview with a detailed analysis on the world of MMA. This blogs covers anything relating to the UFC, Strikeforce, Dreams or any other MMA organization.

Thursday, February 02, 2006

SuperBowl Extra Large

The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the most watched sporting event of the year. It is also the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone has some sort of interest in the game. Super Bowl games bring experienced and novice bettors together for this one day in the calendar year. After reading this article, even the novice bettor should be wiser when Super Bowl Sunday comes around this year.

The Super Bowl has a number of variants not associated with your every day NFL game. Teams have two weeks of rest and time to prepare. Of course, the game is being played on a neutral field. It's no longer the case as it was back in the 80s and the early years of the 90s when it was simply a matter of putting one's money down on the team from the NFC Conference. The NFC does however hold a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.

From a statistical view point, four key areas have more relevance to who will win than anything else. These area's are, time of possession, rushing yards, passing yards per attempt and turnovers. Let's take a look.

Teams that have possession of the football for more than 30 minutes are 29-10 SU and 27-9-3 ATS.

Teams who have more rushing yards are 32-7 SU and 28-8-3 ATS.

Teams that gain more yards per pass attempt are 34-5 SU and 29-7-3 ATS.

Teams that lose possession of the football by either fumbling or having it intercepted less often than their opponents are 37-2 SU and 31-5-3 ATS.

When any team has an advantage in at least three of the above four stats, it is 34-1 SU and 29-5 1 ATS. Super Bowl history shows us that a team had all four statistical edges just 22 times. The record during that period is 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS.

That said, New England had the edge last year in all four stats yet were the only team not to cover the number.

It is often said that defense wins championships and those words still hold true more often than not. Over the last 20 years, the team winning the Super Bowl averages just under 31 points per game. Not often a team wins without scoring 21 points or more. The last team to do it was Pittsburgh back in Super Bowl IX when they defeated Minnesota 16-6.

This is only the fifth time in the last 21 years that a team is a less than a six-point favorite.
The total has been set by the sports books at around 47 points. There isn’t a surprise there, as the last 20 Super Bowl average posted totals have been set at 46.2 points.

Over the previous 39 Super Bowls there have been nine games played inside a dome. The average points scored in those nine games is 48.6. Posted totals have only been available over the last 20 years. During this period, 14 games have gone 'over' the total, including nine of the last 13.

Favorites in the Super Bowl have won the game 27 times out of the previous 39 tries and have a slight edge against the spread at 19-17 with three pushes. As in most cases, finding the straight up winner usually means the winner cover the number evidenced by the fact that Super Bowl winners are 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls. Two of those five non-covers have come in the last two years!

The Super Bowl has seen a lot of one sided affairs, with the average margin of victory being 13.7 points. The last two Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal.

For those who think the Steelers will cover the number, well there's possibly good news. The team that has the highest playoff seed is 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls.

But don't despair if you like the Seahawks. The team with the better record going into the game is 27-9 SU.

Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best