Mixed Martial Arts

Mixed Martial Arts
Mixed Martial Arts

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Welcome to my blog which deals with mixed martial arts betting and preview with a detailed analysis on the world of MMA. This blogs covers anything relating to the UFC, Strikeforce, Dreams or any other MMA organization.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

The NFL in December

One would think that December is generally the month when NFL teams that are hot are determined to stay hot as they make their playoff push. Our research has found that, while this is VERY true when the hot team is at home, it is a totally different story when it goes on the road. In fact, if you simply bet EVERY SINGLE HOME TEAM blindly during the month of
December since 1985, you would be 620-551-25, 52.9 percent ATS.

While that record would produce just a modest profit, it does underscore the fact that home field advantage becomes more important as it gets later in the year regardless of the climate the home team plays in. Getting back to our point regarding hot teams, the following data shows that they are a virtual gold mine at home in December, and simultaneously a nice fade on the road (All records are since 1985):

ALL TEAMS AFTER W3+ SU (December Games Only)

Home: 102-64-5, 61.4% ATSAway: 81-119-6, 40.5% ATS

ALL TEAMS AFTER W4+ SU (December Games Only)

Home: 66-38-3, 63.5% ATSAway: 53-63-5, 45.7% ATS

Starting with the teams that have won exactly three games in a row straight up, if you simply bet the home team in the following game regardless of if it is the hot team or its opponent, you would be 221-145-11, 60.4 percent ATS! That is an extraordinary percentage given the sample size. As you can see, if we then expand the parameter to include all teams that have won four or more games in a row, the home winning percentage jumps up to 63.5 percent.

However, fading teams off of W4+ on the road only yields a 54.3 percent win rate, which while still good pales when compared to the other home angles we have discussed.

Therefore, our advice would be to play ON any home team that has won four or more consecutive games, but to play AGAINST only road teams that have won EXACTLY three straight contests.

So far all of the streaks we have discussed have been straight up, so we decided to take a look at teams that have either won or lost three or more straight games against the spread. Here are those results (Again, all since 1985):

ALL TEAMS AFTER W3+ ATS (December Games Only)

Home: 81-60-6, 57.4% ATSAway: 59-89-5, 39.9% ATS

ALL TEAMS AFTER L3+ ATS (December Games Only)

Home: 86-85, 50.3% ATSAway: 52-79-3, 39.7% ATS

Here, it looks like there is money to be made betting AGAINST these teams on the road, regardless of whether they are coming off of a W3+ or L3+ ATS steak. If we combine the road fade records for both occurrences, we would be 168-111-8, 60.2% ATS!

Finally, look for those special occasions when you can get a December home team that has won three or more in a row BOTH SU and ATS, as well as December road teams that have lost three or more in a row BOTH SU and ATS. This is because the former is 59-32-4, 64.8 percent ATS, while the latter is 31-55-1 ATS for a fade percentage of 64.0 percent!