Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs on 03/10/2006 at 17:35
This is an extremely tough spot for San Antonio. While the Lakers had last night off, the Spurs come off a nationally televised 'revenge-win' at Phoenix. Tonight will mark their fourth game in the past five nights. After losing vs. the Clippers on Tuesday the Spurs are now a poor 4-12 ATS the last 16 times they played the second of back to back games. The Lakers are 3-1 ATS their last four visits to San Antonio. Tonight, they will be looking for some payback as the Spurs beat them on Monday at LA. Lets take the points as Kobe and co. keep this game close the entire way with a shot at the upset.
Play on LA
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Friday, March 10, 2006
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Pleasing Bud
World Baseball Classic? What the hell is the World Baseball classic? This tournament was baseballs attempt to the IOC Olympic committee telling them to shove it for eliminating baseball and softball in the Olympics.
Now I am a pretty big baseball fan but what the hell is the baseball classic. I mean kids grow dreaming of winning the World Series not the World baseball classic.
I watch sports, I bet on sports and I even attempt to play sports but am I really desperate enough to watch this marketing ploy. I mean I am not one of those pathetic losers that try to capture my youth or cling onto a dream that I never had a chance or ability to play in. I live in reality and clinging on to my last stands of hair or playing a game that I really have no use playing is one of the saddest things ever. If I ever become of those people just take me out to the back of Beaver Brook Farms (my friend’s barn) and shoot me.
I mean kids dream about game 7 World Series or going to play baseball for a NCAA colleges like Arizona or UCLA not the baseball classic.
Ever since Bud Selig first announced that baseball would hold its own version of the world Cup, the professional skeptics who are the baseball writers, have dedicated forests to blasting the notion.
If Bud Selig wants to highlight baseball, maybe start by cleaning up the drugs in baseball or making you athletes more accessible. Out of all the major sports baseball players are the most arrogant and non-accommodating. MLB should look at the NHL or NACAR driver.
I mean Bud Selig is one step from looking like Skeletor. This guy is so blind to the real problems of baseball he has to create this made up pseudo tournament.
First off – anything Uncle Bud comes up with deserves intense scrutiny considering his almost perfectly consistent inconsistency. Also, baseball – a North American invention – was clearly attempting to mimic soccer’s international success. That’s even after North American fans have demonstrated again and again that they would rather be kicked in the head than embrace anything to do with soccer.
Then there was the timing, March, when baseball players are supposed to be in training. As in, the hitters won’t be very good – and the pitchers won’t be able to last longer than an inning. This tournament is non competitive as the pitchers have pitch count they can not exceed.
Another kick at the tournament is who wasn’t going. The likes of Vladamir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Billy Wagner, Mark Prior, Mark Mulder, Jose Vidro, Tim Hudson, Melvin Mora, Barry Zito, Roy Halladay, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, CC Sabathia and John Smoltz, are all in absentia.
Not all teams are embracing Selig’s international adventure either. The Yankees posted a sign at their spring training facility apologizing to their snowbird fans for the absence of stars including Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon. Hey, I wonder if George Steinbrenner will post an apology at Yankees stadium for not winning a World Series in five seasons – despite having spent more than half a billion dollars in the attempt?
Yet Selig insisted this marketing ploy to grow the game globally would work. A few days in – he may just be right
Even though I can’t even look at Selig (I might turn into stone) this is working.
Combine those three after a long hard winter, and falling just after the Olympics, where nationalism reigned supreme and we fans long for another taste for it, even Selig would be hard pressed to blow it. The ticket sales are surprisingly good and those who are going to the games appear to be having a blast.
Seeing 30,000 Mexican’s going nuts over their team after they lost a close one to the heavily favored American’s was one. I mean after that game I went to “run for the boarder” Another was South Africa almost taking out Canada. And just yesterday there was the “Miracle on Grass” (sorry Lake Placid) as Canada beat the mighty Americans.
The next scheduled “Classic” is set for 2009.
Maybe you should start thinking about booking your tickets now as I am hooked
Maybe we all have to get on our knee and have go to town on Bud cause this man as a genius and whatever Bud wants he seems to get
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Free Pick of the Day - LOUISVILLE (+4') VS. PITTSBURGH
LOUISVILLE (+4') VS. PITTSBURGH 9:20 ET
It's do or die for HC Rick Pitino and his redbirds as they lock horns with the Panthers to play for the right to match up with West Virginia in the second round. The season looked promising after they got off to a 11-1 start, but the start of Big East play saw them lose 10 of their overall 16 games. Injuries hampered their conference play, but they enter tonight's game the healthiest they've been in quite some time.
Pitt looked to be a major player in the Big East half way through their conference schedule, but faltered down the stretch losing 5 of their L/10 overall. That includes a pair of losses to Seton Hall and West Virginia to close out their regular season schedule.
These clubs met only once this year, and Pitt took home the cash as 3-point road pups by a 61-57 count. Taquan Dean reinjured his ankle early in that one, and only got to play for the first 12 minutes. His scoring was severely missed even though the Cards held a 1-point lead at the half.
With both clubs desperate for a first round win, I'm going to back the Cards who find themselves on life support. They need to win a few games in this tourney just to be considered for the Dance, and I'll back a Rick Pitino coached squad anytime it's grabbing points in tournament play. The Cards are 6-3 SU off a loss against a conference rival this season, and a decent 2-1 ATS seeking revenge from a home loss. Grab whatever points you can as this one might come down to a final shot to determine the victor.
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It's do or die for HC Rick Pitino and his redbirds as they lock horns with the Panthers to play for the right to match up with West Virginia in the second round. The season looked promising after they got off to a 11-1 start, but the start of Big East play saw them lose 10 of their overall 16 games. Injuries hampered their conference play, but they enter tonight's game the healthiest they've been in quite some time.
Pitt looked to be a major player in the Big East half way through their conference schedule, but faltered down the stretch losing 5 of their L/10 overall. That includes a pair of losses to Seton Hall and West Virginia to close out their regular season schedule.
These clubs met only once this year, and Pitt took home the cash as 3-point road pups by a 61-57 count. Taquan Dean reinjured his ankle early in that one, and only got to play for the first 12 minutes. His scoring was severely missed even though the Cards held a 1-point lead at the half.
With both clubs desperate for a first round win, I'm going to back the Cards who find themselves on life support. They need to win a few games in this tourney just to be considered for the Dance, and I'll back a Rick Pitino coached squad anytime it's grabbing points in tournament play. The Cards are 6-3 SU off a loss against a conference rival this season, and a decent 2-1 ATS seeking revenge from a home loss. Grab whatever points you can as this one might come down to a final shot to determine the victor.
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006
CBB: Butler @ Wisconsin Milwaukee
Horizon League Championship
Butler @ Wisconsin Milwaukee
Tuesday, March 7, 2006 (ESPN - 9:00 ET)
Current Total: 128 ½
These teams usually play low scoring games against each other, and we expect more of the same tonight.These clubs met twice during the regular season this year and they combined for exactly 123 points in each contest. Moreover, there teams have averaged a combined 125.9 points in the last seven head-to-head meetings since 2003, with the UNDER going 4-1 in the games that had a posted total.
Yes Milwaukee prefers a more up tempo game as the Panthers are averaging 72.9 points per game for the year, but Butler has done an excellent job of controlling the pace against them and we have no reason to believe the same thing will not happen tonight.
Butler blew out Wisconsin Green Bay 73-51 on Saturday, but that combined total of 124 would be good enough to cash the UNDER here. More importantly, that game marked the third time in the last five games that the Bulldogs have allowed 64 points or less, and the second time in those five games that they held their opponent in the 50s. Given that this is actually a true road game in Milwaukee, we look for the Bulldogs to employ their slowdown tactics yet again tonight.
Play on BUTLER/WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE UNDER 128 ½.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Free Pick of the Day - NHL Vancouver versus Chicago
Vancouver @ Chicago (NHL)
The Canucks visit the United Center and try to rebound off a loss to the Predators to restart the NHL season. The Olympic break has thrown a real wrench into a lot of teams and Vancouver is no different as they try and get their injury situation under control. Vancouver has been amazing at home but has struggled on the road and have been below .500 for most of the season. Scoring has been an issue for both clubs and tonights game is a valuable 2 points. Chicago has gone under 7 of the last 8 at home, and the Canucks have gone under 4 of the last 5 on the road.
Look for another low scoring game and look for very few penalties as both teams have cited publically their frustration with how poorly their penalty killing has been.
Play on: Under
The Canucks visit the United Center and try to rebound off a loss to the Predators to restart the NHL season. The Olympic break has thrown a real wrench into a lot of teams and Vancouver is no different as they try and get their injury situation under control. Vancouver has been amazing at home but has struggled on the road and have been below .500 for most of the season. Scoring has been an issue for both clubs and tonights game is a valuable 2 points. Chicago has gone under 7 of the last 8 at home, and the Canucks have gone under 4 of the last 5 on the road.
Look for another low scoring game and look for very few penalties as both teams have cited publically their frustration with how poorly their penalty killing has been.
Play on: Under
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Gretzky is still a God
Not matter what Gretzky is still a God. Ask anyone in Canada. There isn’t a person in Canada who wouldn’t follow Gretzky’s lead. When he says suck we all say how hard. I have numerous buddies that would wipe Gretzky’s ass after a night of beer and Chili at Taco Bell (Campbell).
The US team didn't seem to be entangled in as much drama as the Canadians going into the games with Team Canada Executive Director and hockey legend Wayne Gretzky being tied up in the Rick Tocchet gambling sting as well as questions as to his choices for the team but the US did seem to have some outspoken critics after the games. What was surprising to most, was that disparaging comments were coming from within the organization - on ice level to be specific.
Three time US Olympian Mike Modano ripped into his country's executive group following the US 4-3 loss to Finland that bounced them from the tournament.
"You'd think USA Hockey would be a well-oiled machine, but it's not," he said. "Basically we were on our own for hotels, tickets, flights, stuff like that. Normally we wouldn't have to worry about stuff like that."
Gretzky stocked this year's Canadian roster with a group who's majority couldn't exactly be referred to as 'spring chickens' either with 18 of the starting 25 in the lineup being born prior to 1980. Yes - the core of this year's team was there to bring home gold during Salt Lake 2002 as well as the 2004 World Cup, but 4 years is a long time in sport-years and takes its toll on an a battered old hockey body (even with a year off for the lockout).
Pittsburgh Penguins rookie standout Sidney Crosby was left off the roster completely, despite sitting 12th in NHL scoring with 65 points in 58 games as were Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau, both standouts with the San Jose Sharks this season.
"People are going to question who was on the ice and who was on the team and that's OK," Gretzky told CBC Sports.
"I'm a pretty big boy. I can stand up [to any criticism].
"[But] obviously we have to do something different for 2010."
It is indeed, Wayne, a time for the 'changing of the guard'.
My congratulations to Sweden who did end up winning gold but even they had a short lived celebration as NHL players from that winning team were right back on planes heading to their respective North American club cities after a few minutes of Stockholm-style celebration.
Maybe there is a lot to be taken from the fallout following this year's Olympics.
Maybe the US program needs a revamping and should seriously consider Modano's comments as worthy. Maybe Gretzky's history should be discounted and he shouldn't have the right to decide who suits up for Canada in Vancouver 2010. Maybe all of this hullabaloo is really justified afterall.
... or maybe... it just sucks to lose.
I say 1 or 2 ply Mr. Gretzky?
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Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Free Pick of the Day Kansas versus Nebraska
Kansas State +2.0
Wed Mar 1 '06 8:00p
Kansas State (14-11, 5-9 Big 12) enters tonight game against Nebraska (17-10, 7-7 Big 12) as a road underdog! The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS when getting points and are 11-5 ATS against winning teams like Nebraska this season! This Wildcats team has suffered a pair of back to back heart breaking 1 point losses to conference power houses Texas and Oklahoma and will be more than motivated to avenge those losses and at the same time bolster their Big 12 conference tourney seeding! Nebraska on the other hand has had an average campaign and have lost 4 of the L/6 trips to the hardwood and are 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-1 ATS as 3 point chalk or less on home court!
Bottom line: The Wildcats and Huskers still have a lot to play for here this evening, and I expect this to be a spirited hard fought affair that could easily be decided by a buzzer beater!
Final notes: Kanas States nine losses this season have come by five points or less. Take the points
Wed Mar 1 '06 8:00p
Kansas State (14-11, 5-9 Big 12) enters tonight game against Nebraska (17-10, 7-7 Big 12) as a road underdog! The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS when getting points and are 11-5 ATS against winning teams like Nebraska this season! This Wildcats team has suffered a pair of back to back heart breaking 1 point losses to conference power houses Texas and Oklahoma and will be more than motivated to avenge those losses and at the same time bolster their Big 12 conference tourney seeding! Nebraska on the other hand has had an average campaign and have lost 4 of the L/6 trips to the hardwood and are 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-1 ATS as 3 point chalk or less on home court!
Bottom line: The Wildcats and Huskers still have a lot to play for here this evening, and I expect this to be a spirited hard fought affair that could easily be decided by a buzzer beater!
Final notes: Kanas States nine losses this season have come by five points or less. Take the points
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Second Half Look at the NBA
As the second half of the NBA season gets underway, let's examine how the first half went and take a look at what we can expect down the stretch. One thing is for sure, the Western Conference is superior to the East, despite what happened in the All-Star game.
Although, the Western Conference is so much better than the East, the best team in the NBA resides on top of the Central Division. The Detroit Pistons were the only team to get to the break with single-digit losses. The Pistons feature the most experienced and sturdy starting five, with Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed and Ben Wallace.
The only other team with a chance to represent the East in the title game is the Miami Heat, led by Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade. Anytime you have that combination, you're a threat. In addition, the Heat have shown they can win on the road. The LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers are the only other team in the conference to finish 10 games over .500 at the break.
The New Jersey Nets lead the Atlantic Division with a 29-23 mark. It looks like the Nets will be the third seed in the conference, while the Cavaliers will take the fourth spot. The top four places look like locks. The remainder of playoff teams will all be around the .500 mark. The exception is the eighth and final spot, which will probably be a team playing under .500. If the playoffs were to start now, the Philadelphia 76ers would get in with a record two games below .500.
The teams looking like outcasts include Boston, Toronto, New York, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte. The Knicks, Hawks and Bobcats will continue to battle for the worst record in the league.
The Western Conference is loaded, especially the Southwest Division where the Dallas Mavericks and World Champion San Antonio are doing battle for the top spot. Both teams have been proven winners on the road, as both finished the break with 19 wins away from home. The Memphis Grizzlies are looking like a playoff team, as are the surprising New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets.
The Pacific Division is led by the Phoenix Suns, which continue to win games despite not having Amare Stoudemire for the entire season. The All-Star center is expected to return some time next month. Both Los Angeles teams are playing well, with the Clippers finally heading toward the playoffs with a legitimate club. The Lakers will need to have a hot second half to make the postseason.
The only team in the Northwest Division that looks like a playoff contender is the Denver Nuggets. The rest of the conference is made up of disappointments. Minnesota, Seattle and Portland seem to be out of reach, while Utah has a shot with a strong second half.
The Western Conference playoffs should be a blast, with several great matchups. If the regular season ended today, the matchup of No.1 versus No. 8 would be the Dallas Mavericks against the Kobe Bryant-led Lakers. Even the Mavericks would have to admit being a bit scared of that first round opponent.
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Although, the Western Conference is so much better than the East, the best team in the NBA resides on top of the Central Division. The Detroit Pistons were the only team to get to the break with single-digit losses. The Pistons feature the most experienced and sturdy starting five, with Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed and Ben Wallace.
The only other team with a chance to represent the East in the title game is the Miami Heat, led by Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade. Anytime you have that combination, you're a threat. In addition, the Heat have shown they can win on the road. The LeBron James led Cleveland Cavaliers are the only other team in the conference to finish 10 games over .500 at the break.
The New Jersey Nets lead the Atlantic Division with a 29-23 mark. It looks like the Nets will be the third seed in the conference, while the Cavaliers will take the fourth spot. The top four places look like locks. The remainder of playoff teams will all be around the .500 mark. The exception is the eighth and final spot, which will probably be a team playing under .500. If the playoffs were to start now, the Philadelphia 76ers would get in with a record two games below .500.
The teams looking like outcasts include Boston, Toronto, New York, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte. The Knicks, Hawks and Bobcats will continue to battle for the worst record in the league.
The Western Conference is loaded, especially the Southwest Division where the Dallas Mavericks and World Champion San Antonio are doing battle for the top spot. Both teams have been proven winners on the road, as both finished the break with 19 wins away from home. The Memphis Grizzlies are looking like a playoff team, as are the surprising New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets.
The Pacific Division is led by the Phoenix Suns, which continue to win games despite not having Amare Stoudemire for the entire season. The All-Star center is expected to return some time next month. Both Los Angeles teams are playing well, with the Clippers finally heading toward the playoffs with a legitimate club. The Lakers will need to have a hot second half to make the postseason.
The only team in the Northwest Division that looks like a playoff contender is the Denver Nuggets. The rest of the conference is made up of disappointments. Minnesota, Seattle and Portland seem to be out of reach, while Utah has a shot with a strong second half.
The Western Conference playoffs should be a blast, with several great matchups. If the regular season ended today, the matchup of No.1 versus No. 8 would be the Dallas Mavericks against the Kobe Bryant-led Lakers. Even the Mavericks would have to admit being a bit scared of that first round opponent.
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Wednesday, February 22, 2006
2006 Baseball Betting Odds
The New York Mets have power, speed, the deepest rotation in the National League East and closer Billy Wagner to apply the finishing touches.
That's more than enough to make the Mets, who won just 83 games last season and finished seven games behind Atlanta in the division, the 5/2 favorites to win the NL pennant. That's according to odds posted at the Palms sports book in Las Vegas.
If the 'chalk' holds up, fans in the Big Apple can get ready for another 'subway series'. The New York Yankees are 2/1 favorites to win the American League pennant at The Palms.
Mets general manager Omar Minaya has been the busiest wheeler-dealer in baseball this winter. The addition of left-handed power hitter Carlos Delgado, and proven contact-hitter Paul LoDuca, will serve the offense well.
Manager Willie Randolph is keeping his fingers crossed that ace Pedro Martinez stays healthy and that Tom Glavine duplicates the success he had after last season’s All-Star break.
Atlanta has won 14 straight NL-East titles, and there's certainly no reason to believe lightning can't strike again. The Braves wouldn't be 16/1 to win the World Series and 9/2 to win the pennant if they had a lockdown closer.
The Yankees are 2/1 choices to win the AL pennant at The Palms. New York is an aging team that didn't do much in the offseason to improve its starting rotation. But the Yankees still have one of the most potent offenses on the planet, despite Jorge Posada going downhill and Gary Sheffield being injury prone.
Skipper Joe Torre is counting on 42-year-old Randy Johnson and 37-year-old Mike Mussina to fill the two top spots in his rotation. Shawn Chacon, who looked like a different pitcher after coming to New York from Colorado, could be a solid 15-game winner at the back of the rotation if he continues to improve.
New York may be the baseball capital, but the Windy City isn't far behind. The defending champion Chicago White Sox are a close second choice to win the pennant at 5/2, while the Cubs are third choices in the NL at 4/1.
Since the Pale Hose didn't rest on their laurels in the offseason, they are in very good shape to repeat. The momentum from Chicago's 11-1 postseason run continued in the offseason when it acquired slugger Jim Thome and starter Javier Vazquez and resigned Paul Konerko.
Ever optimistic Cubs fans think this could be their year after Boston and the White Sox ended long championship droughts the past two seasons. There's no doubt Chicago can contend after last year's 79-win fourth place division finish if its starting pitchers stay healthy.
Defending NL champ Houston has so many questions still to be answered that it is listed at 8/1 to win the pennant and 22/1 to win the World Series.
The Astros still have Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt at the top of their rotation, but Roger Clemens may not be back until May 1, if ever. Houston didn't do much to improve an offense that finished near the bottom in 2005 in many offensive categories.
Boston, just one year removed from winning the title, isn't getting much respect. The Red Sox are 11/1 to win the World Series and 13/2 to capture the pennant.
The Red Sox are a team in transition and could be on the decline. Skipper Terry Francona has a good rotation on paper, but it has question marks. Josh Beckett, acquired when Florida conducted a winter fire sale, has dominant stuff and should emerge as the Red Sox' ace.
Toronto made almost as many offseason moves as the Mets and this could be the year it makes a bona fide run in the AL East. The Jays bolstered both the front of their rotation and the bullpen with the addition of A.J. Burnett and B.J Ryan.
Toronto now has a rotation topped by Roy Halladay, with Burnett, Josh Towers and lefties Ted Lilly and Gustavo Chacin that will help them compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Blue Jays opened at 40/1 to win the title, but that price soon dropped to 30/1.
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Monday, February 20, 2006
Weekend in Review Feb 20 2006
The East trailed the West by 21 points early in the third quarter of Sunday's All Star game but rallied to win. The East actually led 117-107 with just 3 1/2-minutes left in the game but found themselves in a 120-120 tie with 32 seconds remaining (typical NBA game). Wade's putback with 16 seconds was the game-winner and while T-Mac's 36 points were a game-high, LeBron was the game's MVP (youngest-ever). The NBA resumes on Tuesday with a 12-game schedule.
No. 13 Boston College was the only top-25 team to not play over the weekend and NINE of the 24 in action, fell. The highest ranked team to lose was No. 6 Texas, which lost at Oklahoma State on Sunday, 80-61. The nation's No. 8 through No. 11 teams also lost, as Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Florida and West Va all came up losers. Of the five losing teams among the nation's top-11, only 11th ranked West Va lost to a ranked opponent, losing to No. 1 U Conn on Saturday (81-75).
Maybe the weekend's biggest loser was No. 24 Bucknell, ranked for the first time in school history. The Bison played at Northern Iowa on Saturday, in the most anticipated game of ESPN's BracketBuster extravaganza. Bucknell blew chances to seal the game at the end of regulation and again near the end of the first overtime, before losing 65-61 in double-OT and ending its 12-game winning streak . However, the loss was not a league game, so Buknell remains one of the nation's few remaining teams still unbeaten in conference play.
Penn, of the Ivy League, was not as lucky. The Quakers had opened 7-0 in league play (winning by an average of 23.1 PPG) but lost at Columbia on Friday night, 59-57. The Lions won the game on a tip-in with just two seconds remaining. Penn won at Cornell 67-56 on Saturday but its loss on Friday leaves only FIVE Division I schools still unbeaten in conference play.
Last year only Pacific of the Big West (18-0) finished unbeaten in conference games, while two years ago, Austin Peay (16-0 in the OVC), Gonzaga (14-0 in the WCC) and ST Joe's (16-0 in the A-10) accomplished the feat. Joining Bucknell as schools still unbeaten in conference play this year, are Duke (13-0 in the ACC), George Washington (12-0 in the A-10), Gonzaga (11-0 in the WCC) and Memphis (10-0 in C-USA).No. 2 Duke, which should be No.1 later today when the new poll comes out, beat Miami-Florida on Sunday, 92-71. JJ Redick scored 30 points (his school-record 13th 30-plus game this year) and became the school's all-time leading scorer. He's
No. 2 in the nation this year in scoring, averaging 28.9 PPG, and is just 30 points behind the ACC's all-time career points leader, Dickie Hemric of Wake Forest.
No. 5 Gonzaga beat Loyola-Marymount on Saturday (79-70), as the nation's leading scorer, Adam Morrison (29.4 PPG), scored a career-high 44 points. It was Gonzaga's 13th straight win, tying them with No. 3 Memphis (which won at Tulane 105-65) for the second-longest current winning streak in the country. Memphis is 10-0 on the road this year, the only Division I school unbeaten in "true" road games. The nation's longest current winning streak belongs to No. 7 George Washington. The Colonials won at Richmond on Saturday (64-51), for their 14th straight win.
Just THREE schools entered the weekend winless in conference play. Texas State of the Southland Conference ended a 12-game losing streak and picked up its first conference win of the year (now 1-11) by easily winning at home over Texas-San Antonio, 81-57. The news was not as good for South Florida, as the Bulls extended their school-record losing streak to 14 games and dropped to 0-12 in the Big East, when they lost at home to Rutgers, 65-51. The Citadel, 0-13 in the Southern Conference, did not play over the weekend but hosts Furman tonight at 7:15 ET. The Bulldogs are nine-point underdogs with a total of 137. It's one of just 12 games on tonight's college 'board' and is surely far from the most interesting. Three games are on TV, the first two on ESPN and the final one on ESPN2.
No. 11 West Va (18-7) is at Syracuse (7:00 ET), where the Mountaineers are favored by one point with a total of 140. West Va won its first eight Big East games but is just 1-3 since. Syracuse opened 15-2 but then lost four straight games (three to top-10 opponents) and comes into this game 18-8 overall and 6-6 in the Big East.No. 19 Oklahoma is 17-6 (8-4) and visits Texas Tech (14-12 / 6-6) at 9:00 ET. Oklahoma won in Norman 60-48 (Jan 21) in the first meeting this year but Tech is 12-3 at home this season. However, the Red Raiders are 0-5 vs ranked opponents this year, losing by an average of 21.4 PPG. Oklahoma is favored by four points with a total of 130.
No. 5 Gonzaga travels to Malibu tonight at 12:00 midnight ET to take on Pepperdine. The Bulldogs own a current 13-game winning streak (wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 PPG) and have won 20 straight games in the WCC. The Waves, who have lost eight straight to Gonzaga, will have to play without their leading scorer, freshman Michael Gerrity (14.8). Gonzaga is favored by 11 1/2 points with a total of 151 1/2.
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No. 13 Boston College was the only top-25 team to not play over the weekend and NINE of the 24 in action, fell. The highest ranked team to lose was No. 6 Texas, which lost at Oklahoma State on Sunday, 80-61. The nation's No. 8 through No. 11 teams also lost, as Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Florida and West Va all came up losers. Of the five losing teams among the nation's top-11, only 11th ranked West Va lost to a ranked opponent, losing to No. 1 U Conn on Saturday (81-75).
Maybe the weekend's biggest loser was No. 24 Bucknell, ranked for the first time in school history. The Bison played at Northern Iowa on Saturday, in the most anticipated game of ESPN's BracketBuster extravaganza. Bucknell blew chances to seal the game at the end of regulation and again near the end of the first overtime, before losing 65-61 in double-OT and ending its 12-game winning streak . However, the loss was not a league game, so Buknell remains one of the nation's few remaining teams still unbeaten in conference play.
Penn, of the Ivy League, was not as lucky. The Quakers had opened 7-0 in league play (winning by an average of 23.1 PPG) but lost at Columbia on Friday night, 59-57. The Lions won the game on a tip-in with just two seconds remaining. Penn won at Cornell 67-56 on Saturday but its loss on Friday leaves only FIVE Division I schools still unbeaten in conference play.
Last year only Pacific of the Big West (18-0) finished unbeaten in conference games, while two years ago, Austin Peay (16-0 in the OVC), Gonzaga (14-0 in the WCC) and ST Joe's (16-0 in the A-10) accomplished the feat. Joining Bucknell as schools still unbeaten in conference play this year, are Duke (13-0 in the ACC), George Washington (12-0 in the A-10), Gonzaga (11-0 in the WCC) and Memphis (10-0 in C-USA).No. 2 Duke, which should be No.1 later today when the new poll comes out, beat Miami-Florida on Sunday, 92-71. JJ Redick scored 30 points (his school-record 13th 30-plus game this year) and became the school's all-time leading scorer. He's
No. 2 in the nation this year in scoring, averaging 28.9 PPG, and is just 30 points behind the ACC's all-time career points leader, Dickie Hemric of Wake Forest.
No. 5 Gonzaga beat Loyola-Marymount on Saturday (79-70), as the nation's leading scorer, Adam Morrison (29.4 PPG), scored a career-high 44 points. It was Gonzaga's 13th straight win, tying them with No. 3 Memphis (which won at Tulane 105-65) for the second-longest current winning streak in the country. Memphis is 10-0 on the road this year, the only Division I school unbeaten in "true" road games. The nation's longest current winning streak belongs to No. 7 George Washington. The Colonials won at Richmond on Saturday (64-51), for their 14th straight win.
Just THREE schools entered the weekend winless in conference play. Texas State of the Southland Conference ended a 12-game losing streak and picked up its first conference win of the year (now 1-11) by easily winning at home over Texas-San Antonio, 81-57. The news was not as good for South Florida, as the Bulls extended their school-record losing streak to 14 games and dropped to 0-12 in the Big East, when they lost at home to Rutgers, 65-51. The Citadel, 0-13 in the Southern Conference, did not play over the weekend but hosts Furman tonight at 7:15 ET. The Bulldogs are nine-point underdogs with a total of 137. It's one of just 12 games on tonight's college 'board' and is surely far from the most interesting. Three games are on TV, the first two on ESPN and the final one on ESPN2.
No. 11 West Va (18-7) is at Syracuse (7:00 ET), where the Mountaineers are favored by one point with a total of 140. West Va won its first eight Big East games but is just 1-3 since. Syracuse opened 15-2 but then lost four straight games (three to top-10 opponents) and comes into this game 18-8 overall and 6-6 in the Big East.No. 19 Oklahoma is 17-6 (8-4) and visits Texas Tech (14-12 / 6-6) at 9:00 ET. Oklahoma won in Norman 60-48 (Jan 21) in the first meeting this year but Tech is 12-3 at home this season. However, the Red Raiders are 0-5 vs ranked opponents this year, losing by an average of 21.4 PPG. Oklahoma is favored by four points with a total of 130.
No. 5 Gonzaga travels to Malibu tonight at 12:00 midnight ET to take on Pepperdine. The Bulldogs own a current 13-game winning streak (wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 PPG) and have won 20 straight games in the WCC. The Waves, who have lost eight straight to Gonzaga, will have to play without their leading scorer, freshman Michael Gerrity (14.8). Gonzaga is favored by 11 1/2 points with a total of 151 1/2.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Betting Hoops
Football season is now behind us and we find ourselves smack in the middle of both the college and pro basketball seasons. Fortunately for bettors, there are dozens of games each day to look for soft sides, totals, and winning opportunities.
One thing to keep in mind is that we are approaching the point where some teams are more motivated than others.
Some of the reasons for this include injuries, personnel, coaching and postseason races at stake. Take the New York Knicks, for example. On the surface, the Knicks are not a team one can look at and assume they are going to pack it in the rest of the season. The main reason is that their head coach, first-year coach Larry Brown, has a long track record of getting the most out of his players. This guy can teach defense, motivate players and he understands the dynamics on the court enough to make changes to try and fix problems.
He also has an NBA ring (just two years ago with the Pistons) and has taken many teams to the playoffs. He's an excellent NBA coach. Just last month he took a chance by putting rookie David Lee into the starting lineup and asked him to be a role player, boxing out on the boards and grabbing rebounds. And Lee excelled in this role, helping the team. However, there are a lot of problems with this team. The defense is awful, allowing opponents to shoot over 46%, fifth-worst in the league. Teams ranked worse than New York in that category include Toronto, Seattle, Atlanta and Charlotte. None of those teams are going to the playoffs.
In addition, the Knicks allow 101 PPG, third worst in the NBA. Brown is very good at teaching defense, of course, but there's only so much a coach can do. You need talent on the court! His best offensive force, Stephon Marbury, is out until after the All Star break with a bad shoulder. But the bottom line is, how is this team performing? The Knicks are 1-15 straight up and 4-12 against the spread the last 16 games! They have been overvalued all season and are really going in the tank of late. Their defense has been so bad they have been money-makers over the total, at 16-9 over at home and 16-9 over on the road. Sports bettors need to look at teams like this and keep tabs on whether they are likely to get better, remain the same, or even get worse.
The Seattle Sonics are kind of a mirror-image of the Knicks. They are underachievers without a defense. They are already on their second coach of the season and not playing any better. Seattle is 7-16 SU and 6-17 ATS the last 23 games! Are they likely to get better? Nothing short of bringing in a new coach to kick some butt is likely to change things. Also note that the ‘over’ is 20-5 in Seattle’s first 25 home games.
New Orleans is a team of young players and limited talent. However, it’s impressive how much rookie Chris Paul has meant to this team. He left his college team and they fell apart. And after joining New Orleans, the Hornets have played better than anyone expected. He appears to be a special player, one who makes the others around him much better, like a Tim Duncan or a Jason Kidd. The Hornets are 11-5 ATS the last 16 games! As long as Paul is healthy and in the lineup, this is a group that may continue to overachieve. This is why examining recent spread history is so important. Trying to figure out WHY these trends are taking place can help identify future wagering opportunities.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
One thing to keep in mind is that we are approaching the point where some teams are more motivated than others.
Some of the reasons for this include injuries, personnel, coaching and postseason races at stake. Take the New York Knicks, for example. On the surface, the Knicks are not a team one can look at and assume they are going to pack it in the rest of the season. The main reason is that their head coach, first-year coach Larry Brown, has a long track record of getting the most out of his players. This guy can teach defense, motivate players and he understands the dynamics on the court enough to make changes to try and fix problems.
He also has an NBA ring (just two years ago with the Pistons) and has taken many teams to the playoffs. He's an excellent NBA coach. Just last month he took a chance by putting rookie David Lee into the starting lineup and asked him to be a role player, boxing out on the boards and grabbing rebounds. And Lee excelled in this role, helping the team. However, there are a lot of problems with this team. The defense is awful, allowing opponents to shoot over 46%, fifth-worst in the league. Teams ranked worse than New York in that category include Toronto, Seattle, Atlanta and Charlotte. None of those teams are going to the playoffs.
In addition, the Knicks allow 101 PPG, third worst in the NBA. Brown is very good at teaching defense, of course, but there's only so much a coach can do. You need talent on the court! His best offensive force, Stephon Marbury, is out until after the All Star break with a bad shoulder. But the bottom line is, how is this team performing? The Knicks are 1-15 straight up and 4-12 against the spread the last 16 games! They have been overvalued all season and are really going in the tank of late. Their defense has been so bad they have been money-makers over the total, at 16-9 over at home and 16-9 over on the road. Sports bettors need to look at teams like this and keep tabs on whether they are likely to get better, remain the same, or even get worse.
The Seattle Sonics are kind of a mirror-image of the Knicks. They are underachievers without a defense. They are already on their second coach of the season and not playing any better. Seattle is 7-16 SU and 6-17 ATS the last 23 games! Are they likely to get better? Nothing short of bringing in a new coach to kick some butt is likely to change things. Also note that the ‘over’ is 20-5 in Seattle’s first 25 home games.
New Orleans is a team of young players and limited talent. However, it’s impressive how much rookie Chris Paul has meant to this team. He left his college team and they fell apart. And after joining New Orleans, the Hornets have played better than anyone expected. He appears to be a special player, one who makes the others around him much better, like a Tim Duncan or a Jason Kidd. The Hornets are 11-5 ATS the last 16 games! As long as Paul is healthy and in the lineup, this is a group that may continue to overachieve. This is why examining recent spread history is so important. Trying to figure out WHY these trends are taking place can help identify future wagering opportunities.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Monday, February 13, 2006
NBA Trends Feb 13,2006
Throw away those scouting reports on the Utah Jazz. Carlos Boozer, who last wore a Jazz uniform on Feb. 14, 2005, saw limited action over the weekend.
Boozer's return to the lineup could completely change the course of Utah's season. A healthy Boozer significantly boosts the Jazz' inside game, something that has been missing, especially over the last month.
Utah had failed to score 30 points in the paint four times in its last six games prior to Friday, going 1-3. That's been a season-long trend, as the Jazz are 3-9 when they fail to collect 30 points in the paint.
With or without Boozer, Utah always gives the Los Angeles Lakers a tough time. The Western Conference rivals conclude their season series Monday at the Staples Center.
The Jazz have won six of their last nine versus the Lakers - including two of three this season – and have cashed eight of nine. Utah upset Los Angeles in its first visit of the season as three-point dogs, 98-94, cashing for the fifth straight time on the road.
Six of the last seven series shootouts have been on the high side, while the teams have eclipsed the total in the last three meetings in Los Angeles.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the Monday menu appear below.
SPURS at CAVS
Cleveland was humbled by 26-points at San Antonio in the initial clash this season. The Cavaliers bounced back at home last year after a 19-point drubbing in Texas to lose by only two. The Spurs have won six of the last seven series encounters, dropping two of three spread decisions at Quicken Loans Arena.
BLAZERS at CATS
Portland trounced Charlotte as 9 1/2-point home favorites last season, 101-89, and escaped with a narrow win as five-point road favorites in the rematch, 80-77. Both meetings slipped below the closing total.
WIZARDS at HORNETS
Washington has lost five straight road meetings against New Orleans with four of the setbacks coming by nine points or more. The Hornets will be looking to avenge a loss at the MCI Center in the initial clash this season as 4 1/2-point dogs, 110-99. Gilbert Arenas scored 33 points on that occasion. Washington will be playing just its second road game since the first of February. The Wizards have come up short in four of their last six as road underdogs. Seven of the last 10 series tussles and four of five on the Hornets' court have zipped 'over'.
RAPTORS at T-WOLVES
Toronto swept two-games from Minnesota last season, winning at the Target Center as 8 1/2-point dogs, 100-91, and holding serve as seven-point home pups, 96-90. Four of the last five showdowns have been on the low side.
KNICKS at MAVS
Dallas isn't apt to take New York lightly after dropping the first meeting this season at The Garden, 117-115. The Mavericks have cashed five of seven versus the Knicks, though they failed to get the green at home last season as nine-point favorites while winning, 103-101. Dallas has won nine straight at home and cashed six of its last seven as home favorites. Four of five series challenges have bounced 'over'.
GRIZZLIES at WARRIORS
Memphis has won nine of 12 versus Golden State, including four of six on the road. The Grizzlies will be playing the finale of a seven-game trip. The Warriors head home after playing their last three on the highway. Golden State has won three of its last four in Oakland, though it is just 1-4 against the spread as home underdogs. Memphis prevailed as 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first clash of the season, 104-94. The teams have topped the total in the last four series battles.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
SuperBowl Extra Large
The Super Bowl is undoubtedly the most watched sporting event of the year. It is also the largest wagered event in all of sports, as nearly everyone has some sort of interest in the game. Super Bowl games bring experienced and novice bettors together for this one day in the calendar year. After reading this article, even the novice bettor should be wiser when Super Bowl Sunday comes around this year.
The Super Bowl has a number of variants not associated with your every day NFL game. Teams have two weeks of rest and time to prepare. Of course, the game is being played on a neutral field. It's no longer the case as it was back in the 80s and the early years of the 90s when it was simply a matter of putting one's money down on the team from the NFC Conference. The NFC does however hold a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.
From a statistical view point, four key areas have more relevance to who will win than anything else. These area's are, time of possession, rushing yards, passing yards per attempt and turnovers. Let's take a look.
Teams that have possession of the football for more than 30 minutes are 29-10 SU and 27-9-3 ATS.
Teams who have more rushing yards are 32-7 SU and 28-8-3 ATS.
Teams that gain more yards per pass attempt are 34-5 SU and 29-7-3 ATS.
Teams that lose possession of the football by either fumbling or having it intercepted less often than their opponents are 37-2 SU and 31-5-3 ATS.
When any team has an advantage in at least three of the above four stats, it is 34-1 SU and 29-5 1 ATS. Super Bowl history shows us that a team had all four statistical edges just 22 times. The record during that period is 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS.
That said, New England had the edge last year in all four stats yet were the only team not to cover the number.
It is often said that defense wins championships and those words still hold true more often than not. Over the last 20 years, the team winning the Super Bowl averages just under 31 points per game. Not often a team wins without scoring 21 points or more. The last team to do it was Pittsburgh back in Super Bowl IX when they defeated Minnesota 16-6.
This is only the fifth time in the last 21 years that a team is a less than a six-point favorite.
The total has been set by the sports books at around 47 points. There isn’t a surprise there, as the last 20 Super Bowl average posted totals have been set at 46.2 points.
Over the previous 39 Super Bowls there have been nine games played inside a dome. The average points scored in those nine games is 48.6. Posted totals have only been available over the last 20 years. During this period, 14 games have gone 'over' the total, including nine of the last 13.
Favorites in the Super Bowl have won the game 27 times out of the previous 39 tries and have a slight edge against the spread at 19-17 with three pushes. As in most cases, finding the straight up winner usually means the winner cover the number evidenced by the fact that Super Bowl winners are 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls. Two of those five non-covers have come in the last two years!
The Super Bowl has seen a lot of one sided affairs, with the average margin of victory being 13.7 points. The last two Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal.
For those who think the Steelers will cover the number, well there's possibly good news. The team that has the highest playoff seed is 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls.
But don't despair if you like the Seahawks. The team with the better record going into the game is 27-9 SU.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
The Super Bowl has a number of variants not associated with your every day NFL game. Teams have two weeks of rest and time to prepare. Of course, the game is being played on a neutral field. It's no longer the case as it was back in the 80s and the early years of the 90s when it was simply a matter of putting one's money down on the team from the NFC Conference. The NFC does however hold a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.
From a statistical view point, four key areas have more relevance to who will win than anything else. These area's are, time of possession, rushing yards, passing yards per attempt and turnovers. Let's take a look.
Teams that have possession of the football for more than 30 minutes are 29-10 SU and 27-9-3 ATS.
Teams who have more rushing yards are 32-7 SU and 28-8-3 ATS.
Teams that gain more yards per pass attempt are 34-5 SU and 29-7-3 ATS.
Teams that lose possession of the football by either fumbling or having it intercepted less often than their opponents are 37-2 SU and 31-5-3 ATS.
When any team has an advantage in at least three of the above four stats, it is 34-1 SU and 29-5 1 ATS. Super Bowl history shows us that a team had all four statistical edges just 22 times. The record during that period is 22-0 SU and 20-1-1 ATS.
That said, New England had the edge last year in all four stats yet were the only team not to cover the number.
It is often said that defense wins championships and those words still hold true more often than not. Over the last 20 years, the team winning the Super Bowl averages just under 31 points per game. Not often a team wins without scoring 21 points or more. The last team to do it was Pittsburgh back in Super Bowl IX when they defeated Minnesota 16-6.
This is only the fifth time in the last 21 years that a team is a less than a six-point favorite.
The total has been set by the sports books at around 47 points. There isn’t a surprise there, as the last 20 Super Bowl average posted totals have been set at 46.2 points.
Over the previous 39 Super Bowls there have been nine games played inside a dome. The average points scored in those nine games is 48.6. Posted totals have only been available over the last 20 years. During this period, 14 games have gone 'over' the total, including nine of the last 13.
Favorites in the Super Bowl have won the game 27 times out of the previous 39 tries and have a slight edge against the spread at 19-17 with three pushes. As in most cases, finding the straight up winner usually means the winner cover the number evidenced by the fact that Super Bowl winners are 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls. Two of those five non-covers have come in the last two years!
The Super Bowl has seen a lot of one sided affairs, with the average margin of victory being 13.7 points. The last two Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal.
For those who think the Steelers will cover the number, well there's possibly good news. The team that has the highest playoff seed is 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls.
But don't despair if you like the Seahawks. The team with the better record going into the game is 27-9 SU.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
NHL Report Feb 1,2006
With all this week's talk surrounding Super Bowl XL, I thought I'd do something different and provide an update on what's happening in the world of hockey.
Five biggest surprise teams
Carolina
Carolina is clearly this season's biggest surprise. Most pre-season pundits speculated that the Hurricanes would be lucky to challenge for a playoff spot. Rather, the Hurricanes have exceeded even their own expectations and are currently the top team in the entire league. The Hurricanes have been strong on the road and virtually unbeatable at home.
Buffalo
Many fans in Buffalo had to be feeling pessimistic heading into this season. The Sabres failed to make the playoffs in the 2003-2004 season. They lost a couple of their top players and didn't pick up any well known replacements. Yet, the Sabres occupy the seventh spot in the league, fourth in the Eastern Conference.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have underachieved for years. However, this year, with arguably less talent, they have been playing superbly. The Rangers are tied with Buffalo for the fourth spot in the East and appear to have playoffs in their future.
Pittsburgh
Boasting a lineup of veteran offensive stars along with rookie phenomenon Sidney Crosby, many felt that the Penguins would be highly competitive. That has hardly been the case. The Penguins have allowed more goals than any other team in hockey and sit in last place in the Eastern Conference.
Nashville
Predators' fans expected their team to be improved. They didn't necessarily expect to be challenging for the top spot in the Western Conference though. The Predators have played 500 hockey on the road but have been dominant on home ice.
Ovechkin vs. Crosby
Comparisons will be made between Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, the two No.1 draft picks, for the rest of their respective careers. Crosby, being of North American descent, received significantly more 'hype' heading into the season and many were touting him as a 'lock' to win the Calder Trophy. However, Ovechkin has been the more impressive rookie thus far.
Through 50 games, 'Alexander the Great' has 34 goals and 31 assists. Crosby isn't too far behind in total points but has scored nine fewer goals. Through 52 games, 'Sid the Kid', has 25 goals and 30 assists. Checking in on their plus and minus ratings and we find Ovechkin at plus two and Crosby at minus eight.
Perhaps more important than the statistics is the fact that Ovechkin's team (Washington) has arguably less talent but is still outperforming Crosby's team (Pittsburgh) in the standings. Despite having played two less games, the Capitals have seven more points than the Penguins.
When it comes time to choosing the rookie of the year, a recent 'highlight-reel' goal may sway a number of voters to the Russian's side. While sliding on his back away from the net, Ovechkin was able to neatly put the puck in the perfect spot for a Capital score.
Olympic Odds
In roughly two weeks, hockey will begin at the Torino Winter Olympics. Canada is favored to win, followed by the Czech Republic and Sweden.
I'd lean to the favorite to take home the gold medal. However, at plus $1.45 there is little value to be found. Therefore, I likely won't make a 'futures' wager.
A list of the current Olympic odds is listed below.
Canada: plus $1.45
Czech Republic: plus $3.00
Sweden: plus $4.50
Russia: plus $5.50
USA: plus $9.00
Slovakia: plus $10.00
Finland: plus $14.00
Switzerland: plus $55.00
Latvia plus $150.00
Italy: plus $150.00
Germany: plus $250.00
Kazakhstan: plus $400.00
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Five biggest surprise teams
Carolina
Carolina is clearly this season's biggest surprise. Most pre-season pundits speculated that the Hurricanes would be lucky to challenge for a playoff spot. Rather, the Hurricanes have exceeded even their own expectations and are currently the top team in the entire league. The Hurricanes have been strong on the road and virtually unbeatable at home.
Buffalo
Many fans in Buffalo had to be feeling pessimistic heading into this season. The Sabres failed to make the playoffs in the 2003-2004 season. They lost a couple of their top players and didn't pick up any well known replacements. Yet, the Sabres occupy the seventh spot in the league, fourth in the Eastern Conference.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have underachieved for years. However, this year, with arguably less talent, they have been playing superbly. The Rangers are tied with Buffalo for the fourth spot in the East and appear to have playoffs in their future.
Pittsburgh
Boasting a lineup of veteran offensive stars along with rookie phenomenon Sidney Crosby, many felt that the Penguins would be highly competitive. That has hardly been the case. The Penguins have allowed more goals than any other team in hockey and sit in last place in the Eastern Conference.
Nashville
Predators' fans expected their team to be improved. They didn't necessarily expect to be challenging for the top spot in the Western Conference though. The Predators have played 500 hockey on the road but have been dominant on home ice.
Ovechkin vs. Crosby
Comparisons will be made between Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, the two No.1 draft picks, for the rest of their respective careers. Crosby, being of North American descent, received significantly more 'hype' heading into the season and many were touting him as a 'lock' to win the Calder Trophy. However, Ovechkin has been the more impressive rookie thus far.
Through 50 games, 'Alexander the Great' has 34 goals and 31 assists. Crosby isn't too far behind in total points but has scored nine fewer goals. Through 52 games, 'Sid the Kid', has 25 goals and 30 assists. Checking in on their plus and minus ratings and we find Ovechkin at plus two and Crosby at minus eight.
Perhaps more important than the statistics is the fact that Ovechkin's team (Washington) has arguably less talent but is still outperforming Crosby's team (Pittsburgh) in the standings. Despite having played two less games, the Capitals have seven more points than the Penguins.
When it comes time to choosing the rookie of the year, a recent 'highlight-reel' goal may sway a number of voters to the Russian's side. While sliding on his back away from the net, Ovechkin was able to neatly put the puck in the perfect spot for a Capital score.
Olympic Odds
In roughly two weeks, hockey will begin at the Torino Winter Olympics. Canada is favored to win, followed by the Czech Republic and Sweden.
I'd lean to the favorite to take home the gold medal. However, at plus $1.45 there is little value to be found. Therefore, I likely won't make a 'futures' wager.
A list of the current Olympic odds is listed below.
Canada: plus $1.45
Czech Republic: plus $3.00
Sweden: plus $4.50
Russia: plus $5.50
USA: plus $9.00
Slovakia: plus $10.00
Finland: plus $14.00
Switzerland: plus $55.00
Latvia plus $150.00
Italy: plus $150.00
Germany: plus $250.00
Kazakhstan: plus $400.00
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
NBA Trends Jan 31 2006
Philadelphia managed to win two games over the weekend without Allen Iverson. That moved the 76ers into a virtual first-place tie with New Jersey in the Atlantic Division. The 76ers don't figure to have as much luck Tuesday when they host Phoenix unless Iverson returns to the court after missing his first two games this season.
The Suns have pummeled Philadelphia in six of the last seven series meetings by eight points or more. Phoenix has also covered the spread during the last three encounters by a combined 59 points. Phoenix had won two straight on its current six-game trip until it squandered a double-digit lead Sunday at Cleveland during a 113-106 setback.
The 76ers’ defense, non-existent for the better part of the season, rose to the occasion in Iverson's absence, allowing 81 points or less in two straight games for the first time this season. Philadelphia combined good ball movement and patience on offense, along with solid defense, to beat New York on Saturday and Orlando on Sunday.
The 76ers have won and 'covered' five of their last six. They are 2-1 as home dogs this season. The Suns have faltered in their last four chances as road favorites after cashing their first five in that role.
The last three series shootouts in Pennsylvania have been on the high side.
Trends and angles for the remainder of Tuesday's card appear below.
PACERS at WIZARDS
Indiana and Washington have already split a pair at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Wizards bounced back from a 24-point pounding in the first clash to win the rematch as seven-point dogs, 94-85. The Pacers have lost five straight as they try to cope without leading scorer Jermaine O'Neal. Indiana is 3-1-2 against the spread in its last six trips to the MCI Center. Seven of the last 10 series showdowns have been on the low side.
LAKERS at KNICKS
New York played Monday at Atlanta while the Los Angeles Lakers took the night off after losing at Detroit, 102-93. The Knicks have failed to cash four of their last five when toiling on consecutive nights. The Lakers won the initial test this season as five-point home favorites, 97-92. They have won and 'covered' two of three at The Garden. New York snapped a four-game home losing slide Friday when it edged Orlando, 97-94. The Knicks are 2-4 this season as home dogs. Los Angeles has lost seven of its last nine on the road. Five of the last seven series encounters have eclipsed the total.
PISTONS at NETS
New Jersey heads home after absorbing four straight losses on the road to face a Detroit squad that has won 11 in a row. The Pistons prevailed in their first visit to New Jersey this season as four-point favorites, 93-83. The Nets were unable to connect from three-point range that night, misfiring on all seven attempts. Detroit has won five straight on the highway and has cashed four straight as road favorites. New Jersey has failed to get the money in eight of the last 11 series squabbles, including four of five overall and four of six at home. The Nets have won eight straight at Continental Airlines Arena. Four of the last five tussles in the Garden State have tumbled 'under'.
BULLS at MAVS
Chicago has lost six of its last seven against Dallas, with four of the setbacks occurring by 13 points or more. The Bulls lone win came in their last trip to Texas when they upset the Mavericks as nine-point dogs, 107-100. Dallas gained revenge for that loss when it won at Chicago in this season's initial test as one-point favorites, 102-94. The Mavericks have won eight straight and cashed seven of their last eight, including three straight as home chalk. The Bulls have won four straight for the second time this season and they have prevailed in three of their last four on the road. Dallas has been on the low side in 14 of its last 19 trips to the post. Chicago has knuckled 'under' in seven of its last nine on the highway.
NUGGETS at KINGS
Denver will be looking to snap a six-game losing skid at Sacramento (1-4-1 ATS). The Kings return home after dropping five of six on the road, culminating in a Sunday overtime loss at Toronto, 124-123. The Nuggets have dropped two in a row for the first time since losing three straight at the end of December. Denver has won six of its last eight on the road. Sacramento has won three straight and five of its last seven at Arco Arena and has cashed three straight as home underdogs.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
The Suns have pummeled Philadelphia in six of the last seven series meetings by eight points or more. Phoenix has also covered the spread during the last three encounters by a combined 59 points. Phoenix had won two straight on its current six-game trip until it squandered a double-digit lead Sunday at Cleveland during a 113-106 setback.
The 76ers’ defense, non-existent for the better part of the season, rose to the occasion in Iverson's absence, allowing 81 points or less in two straight games for the first time this season. Philadelphia combined good ball movement and patience on offense, along with solid defense, to beat New York on Saturday and Orlando on Sunday.
The 76ers have won and 'covered' five of their last six. They are 2-1 as home dogs this season. The Suns have faltered in their last four chances as road favorites after cashing their first five in that role.
The last three series shootouts in Pennsylvania have been on the high side.
Trends and angles for the remainder of Tuesday's card appear below.
PACERS at WIZARDS
Indiana and Washington have already split a pair at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Wizards bounced back from a 24-point pounding in the first clash to win the rematch as seven-point dogs, 94-85. The Pacers have lost five straight as they try to cope without leading scorer Jermaine O'Neal. Indiana is 3-1-2 against the spread in its last six trips to the MCI Center. Seven of the last 10 series showdowns have been on the low side.
LAKERS at KNICKS
New York played Monday at Atlanta while the Los Angeles Lakers took the night off after losing at Detroit, 102-93. The Knicks have failed to cash four of their last five when toiling on consecutive nights. The Lakers won the initial test this season as five-point home favorites, 97-92. They have won and 'covered' two of three at The Garden. New York snapped a four-game home losing slide Friday when it edged Orlando, 97-94. The Knicks are 2-4 this season as home dogs. Los Angeles has lost seven of its last nine on the road. Five of the last seven series encounters have eclipsed the total.
PISTONS at NETS
New Jersey heads home after absorbing four straight losses on the road to face a Detroit squad that has won 11 in a row. The Pistons prevailed in their first visit to New Jersey this season as four-point favorites, 93-83. The Nets were unable to connect from three-point range that night, misfiring on all seven attempts. Detroit has won five straight on the highway and has cashed four straight as road favorites. New Jersey has failed to get the money in eight of the last 11 series squabbles, including four of five overall and four of six at home. The Nets have won eight straight at Continental Airlines Arena. Four of the last five tussles in the Garden State have tumbled 'under'.
BULLS at MAVS
Chicago has lost six of its last seven against Dallas, with four of the setbacks occurring by 13 points or more. The Bulls lone win came in their last trip to Texas when they upset the Mavericks as nine-point dogs, 107-100. Dallas gained revenge for that loss when it won at Chicago in this season's initial test as one-point favorites, 102-94. The Mavericks have won eight straight and cashed seven of their last eight, including three straight as home chalk. The Bulls have won four straight for the second time this season and they have prevailed in three of their last four on the road. Dallas has been on the low side in 14 of its last 19 trips to the post. Chicago has knuckled 'under' in seven of its last nine on the highway.
NUGGETS at KINGS
Denver will be looking to snap a six-game losing skid at Sacramento (1-4-1 ATS). The Kings return home after dropping five of six on the road, culminating in a Sunday overtime loss at Toronto, 124-123. The Nuggets have dropped two in a row for the first time since losing three straight at the end of December. Denver has won six of its last eight on the road. Sacramento has won three straight and five of its last seven at Arco Arena and has cashed three straight as home underdogs.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Monday, January 30, 2006
Betting Super Bowl 40
If you snooze, you lose. That’s one adage that remains in play when it comes time to bet Super Bowl propositions.
The Palms Sports Books in Las Vegas wasted no time posting a bevy of attractive proposition wagers for the Feb. 5 Super Bowl XL showdown between Pittsburgh and Seattle at Detroit’s Ford Field.
The boutique off-strip bet shop got the jump on most of the local competition by compiling over three pages of proposition wagers. The menu covers the usual, such as team to receive the opening kickoff or team to score first and last.
Since prop bettors have become more sophisticated, it didn't take long for them to zero in on one particularly enticing opportunity.
Palms bet baron Richie Baccilieri offered a wager on the total pass interceptions, posting the number at 2 1/2 with the 'over' the favorite at $1.30. It didn't take long for the 'wise' guys to drive the 'under' to minus $1.65.
One can certainly see the attraction. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 10 picks in 340 attempts, an excellent interception rate of 2.9 percent. Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck has been even better, with a miniscule pickoff rate of 2.6 percent. He has nine interceptions in 341 passes, counting the playoffs.
Roethlisberger was picked off in Pittsburgh's divisional road victory at Indianapolis when he was blindsided by Dwight Freeney and the ball squirted out of his hand. That's the lone blemish in 126 postseason attempts by the two Super Bowl quarterbacks.
Seattle committed just 17 turnovers during the regular season, second fewest in the league. Pittsburgh had just 23 giveaways, the sixth fewest. The Palms posted its opening number on total fumbles lost at 1 ½, with the 'over' favored at minus $1.30.
The Steelers and Seahawks’ defenses ranked first and third, respectively, in sacks during the season. Both teams will bring blitzes from every angle imaginable. Seattle, despite not have a single defender with double-digit sacks, totaled 50 takedowns. Pittsburgh was even more diverse, getting sacks from 15 different defenders totaling 47 for the year.
Total quarterback sacks for both teams are on the board at the Palms at five, with the ‘under’ the favorite at minus $1.20.
Seattle tailback and league MVP Shaun Alexander averaged 117.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, which helped his team rank No. 3 in rushing offense. He also authored 14 rushes of 20 or more yards. Conversely the Steelers yielded just 3.4 yards per carry, a league low. They also surrendered just seven runs of 20 yards or more.
The Seahawks hit the board as $1.20 favorites to have the longest run. The longest run in Super Bowl XL is also posted at 25 ½ yards.
The Palms has also posted special pointspread props not offered on a regular basis during the season. Gutsy bettors who think Pittsburgh will blow the Seahawks out of Ford Field can lay 16 1/2-points with the AFC champs and get $3.50 for every dollar wagered. Seattle supporters can take the 16 1/2, but they will have to lay $4.25 to win a dollar.
As a rule, the majority of Las Vegas bet shops post more exotic Super Bowl props the week of the game. We'll take a look at those when they become available.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
The Palms Sports Books in Las Vegas wasted no time posting a bevy of attractive proposition wagers for the Feb. 5 Super Bowl XL showdown between Pittsburgh and Seattle at Detroit’s Ford Field.
The boutique off-strip bet shop got the jump on most of the local competition by compiling over three pages of proposition wagers. The menu covers the usual, such as team to receive the opening kickoff or team to score first and last.
Since prop bettors have become more sophisticated, it didn't take long for them to zero in on one particularly enticing opportunity.
Palms bet baron Richie Baccilieri offered a wager on the total pass interceptions, posting the number at 2 1/2 with the 'over' the favorite at $1.30. It didn't take long for the 'wise' guys to drive the 'under' to minus $1.65.
One can certainly see the attraction. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 10 picks in 340 attempts, an excellent interception rate of 2.9 percent. Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck has been even better, with a miniscule pickoff rate of 2.6 percent. He has nine interceptions in 341 passes, counting the playoffs.
Roethlisberger was picked off in Pittsburgh's divisional road victory at Indianapolis when he was blindsided by Dwight Freeney and the ball squirted out of his hand. That's the lone blemish in 126 postseason attempts by the two Super Bowl quarterbacks.
Seattle committed just 17 turnovers during the regular season, second fewest in the league. Pittsburgh had just 23 giveaways, the sixth fewest. The Palms posted its opening number on total fumbles lost at 1 ½, with the 'over' favored at minus $1.30.
The Steelers and Seahawks’ defenses ranked first and third, respectively, in sacks during the season. Both teams will bring blitzes from every angle imaginable. Seattle, despite not have a single defender with double-digit sacks, totaled 50 takedowns. Pittsburgh was even more diverse, getting sacks from 15 different defenders totaling 47 for the year.
Total quarterback sacks for both teams are on the board at the Palms at five, with the ‘under’ the favorite at minus $1.20.
Seattle tailback and league MVP Shaun Alexander averaged 117.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, which helped his team rank No. 3 in rushing offense. He also authored 14 rushes of 20 or more yards. Conversely the Steelers yielded just 3.4 yards per carry, a league low. They also surrendered just seven runs of 20 yards or more.
The Seahawks hit the board as $1.20 favorites to have the longest run. The longest run in Super Bowl XL is also posted at 25 ½ yards.
The Palms has also posted special pointspread props not offered on a regular basis during the season. Gutsy bettors who think Pittsburgh will blow the Seahawks out of Ford Field can lay 16 1/2-points with the AFC champs and get $3.50 for every dollar wagered. Seattle supporters can take the 16 1/2, but they will have to lay $4.25 to win a dollar.
As a rule, the majority of Las Vegas bet shops post more exotic Super Bowl props the week of the game. We'll take a look at those when they become available.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
College Basketball Schools To Bet On
Underrated college basketball teams seem to slip under the radar every season. These teams perform very well against the spread, with few people noticing. These are usually schools from minor or mid-major conferences, as those teams have an easier time keeping a low profile.
The NCAA Basketball ATS standings through Monday illustrate this point perfectly, as there is just ONE major conference school in the top 10. Moreover, that school (North Carolina State) is not the first team that people think of in an ACC Conference loaded with perennial powerhouses like Duke and North Carolina.
With our apologies to the sharp bettors that have cleaned house this season by betting on these schools, a list of the top 10 ATS teams in the country appears below. (All records are ATS):
1 - SIENA (9-2, 81.8%): The Saints are one of three teams on this list that play in an Added Games conference, out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. However, Siena is 5-0 ATS this season vs. teams from the main board! The Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road despite a 2-6 SU road mark, and they are 7-1 ATS as an underdog.
2T - LOYOLA MARYLAND (8-2, 80.0%): It has been a banner year for the MAAC as the Greyhounds also come out of that conference. The difference between them and Siena is that Loyola is winning on the court, sitting at 10-4 SU compared to 7-7 for the Saints. The Hounds are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog including four outright road upsets!
2T - UTEP (8-2, 80.0%): Who would have thought that the Miners would be the top main board ATS team in the country to this point? UTEP has been automatic on the road going a perfect 5-0 ATS away from home, with four of those covers coming in an underdog role. This team has covered on the road vs. the likes of Texas Tech and Syracuse.
4 - YOUNGSTOWN STATE (11-3, 78.6%): The Penguins finished at 5-23 SU last season, but they have already matched that win total this year with a 5-11 SU mark. However, unlike last year Youngstown State has been in virtually every game this season. The Penguins are 8-1 ATS in an underdog role, and they are also 7-1 ATS overall on the road.
5 - AIR FORCE (7-2, 77.8%): The Falcons have quietly gotten off to a 14-2 SU start, but Air Force has gone unnoticed because it played possibly the easiest non-conference schedule in the country. Still, the Falcons ATS record speaks for itself and they HAVE managed to go 7-2 SU in their lined games. They have been automatic as a home favorite, going 5-1 ATS and 6-0 SU in that role.
6T - AKRON (10-3, 76.9%): Coming out of the MAC, the Zips are off to a surprising 10-3 SU start as well. They have beaten the teams that they are supposed to beat rather handily, going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU as a favorite while winning those games by an impressive average of +13.6 points.
6T - SAMFORD (10-3, 76.9%): The third and final Added Games conference team in our countdown, the Bulldogs out of the Ohio Valley Conference are a fine 9-5 SU. This is another team that has excelled on the road, going 6-1 ATS including 4-3 SU away from home. Samford also shows a covering road effort at Oklahoma on its slate.
8T - CAL POLY SLO (9-3, 75.0%): This has been a pleasant surprise out of the Big West Conference. No, do not expect post-season tournaments for a Mustangs team that is just 4-11 SU, but they have been very competitive. Poly is 6-1 ATS on the road, including a shocking outright upset of CS Fullerton as a 19-point underdog!
8T - NORTH CAROLINA STATE (9-3, 75.0%): At last, we have an entrant from a major conference. NC State has always been tough at home, and this year is no exception as the Wolfpack are 11-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their own arena. What has set this team apart from those in the past however is a 4-1 road ATS mark.
10 - SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (11-4, 73.3%): The Salukis round out the top ten with a 13-4 SU mark, and this has become one of the toughest home teams in all the land. Southern Illinois is 7-2 ATS at home including 4-0 both SU and ATS in Missouri Valley Conference play, winning those home MVC games by an average of 15.8 points!
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The NCAA Basketball ATS standings through Monday illustrate this point perfectly, as there is just ONE major conference school in the top 10. Moreover, that school (North Carolina State) is not the first team that people think of in an ACC Conference loaded with perennial powerhouses like Duke and North Carolina.
With our apologies to the sharp bettors that have cleaned house this season by betting on these schools, a list of the top 10 ATS teams in the country appears below. (All records are ATS):
1 - SIENA (9-2, 81.8%): The Saints are one of three teams on this list that play in an Added Games conference, out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. However, Siena is 5-0 ATS this season vs. teams from the main board! The Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road despite a 2-6 SU road mark, and they are 7-1 ATS as an underdog.
2T - LOYOLA MARYLAND (8-2, 80.0%): It has been a banner year for the MAAC as the Greyhounds also come out of that conference. The difference between them and Siena is that Loyola is winning on the court, sitting at 10-4 SU compared to 7-7 for the Saints. The Hounds are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog including four outright road upsets!
2T - UTEP (8-2, 80.0%): Who would have thought that the Miners would be the top main board ATS team in the country to this point? UTEP has been automatic on the road going a perfect 5-0 ATS away from home, with four of those covers coming in an underdog role. This team has covered on the road vs. the likes of Texas Tech and Syracuse.
4 - YOUNGSTOWN STATE (11-3, 78.6%): The Penguins finished at 5-23 SU last season, but they have already matched that win total this year with a 5-11 SU mark. However, unlike last year Youngstown State has been in virtually every game this season. The Penguins are 8-1 ATS in an underdog role, and they are also 7-1 ATS overall on the road.
5 - AIR FORCE (7-2, 77.8%): The Falcons have quietly gotten off to a 14-2 SU start, but Air Force has gone unnoticed because it played possibly the easiest non-conference schedule in the country. Still, the Falcons ATS record speaks for itself and they HAVE managed to go 7-2 SU in their lined games. They have been automatic as a home favorite, going 5-1 ATS and 6-0 SU in that role.
6T - AKRON (10-3, 76.9%): Coming out of the MAC, the Zips are off to a surprising 10-3 SU start as well. They have beaten the teams that they are supposed to beat rather handily, going 8-1 ATS and 9-0 SU as a favorite while winning those games by an impressive average of +13.6 points.
6T - SAMFORD (10-3, 76.9%): The third and final Added Games conference team in our countdown, the Bulldogs out of the Ohio Valley Conference are a fine 9-5 SU. This is another team that has excelled on the road, going 6-1 ATS including 4-3 SU away from home. Samford also shows a covering road effort at Oklahoma on its slate.
8T - CAL POLY SLO (9-3, 75.0%): This has been a pleasant surprise out of the Big West Conference. No, do not expect post-season tournaments for a Mustangs team that is just 4-11 SU, but they have been very competitive. Poly is 6-1 ATS on the road, including a shocking outright upset of CS Fullerton as a 19-point underdog!
8T - NORTH CAROLINA STATE (9-3, 75.0%): At last, we have an entrant from a major conference. NC State has always been tough at home, and this year is no exception as the Wolfpack are 11-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their own arena. What has set this team apart from those in the past however is a 4-1 road ATS mark.
10 - SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (11-4, 73.3%): The Salukis round out the top ten with a 13-4 SU mark, and this has become one of the toughest home teams in all the land. Southern Illinois is 7-2 ATS at home including 4-0 both SU and ATS in Missouri Valley Conference play, winning those home MVC games by an average of 15.8 points!
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Thursday, January 19, 2006
NFL Playoff Picture
Carolina and Pittsburgh must win three consecutive road games to reach the Super Bowl. That’s going to be difficult considering both teams must accomplish that feat against an opponent that hasn't lost at home.
That's the scenario Sunday when Denver hosts the Panthers and Seattle welcomes Carolina in the NFL's conference championship round.
As the NFC's No. 1 seed, the Seahawks expected to be in the NFC title game. However, their opponent is more of a surprise after fifth-seeded Carolina upset second-seeded Chicago in the divisional playoff round.
But a trip to Seattle figures to be far from intimidating for a Carolina team that stunned the Eagles two years ago in Philadelphia to advance to the Super Bowl.
Shaun Alexander is the player on the spot for the Seahawks. The league's MVP must come up with big in a playoff game at some point. He left the Washington game with a concussion after accumulating six yards on nine carries. Alexander has run for 1,880 yards and scored 27 touchdowns this season.
Carolina must put the ball in the hands of Nick Gongs after DeShaun Foster broke his ankle last week versus Chicago.
Goings is a career backup who carried the ball just 37 times in the regular season. Panthers coach John Fox knows what to expect from Goings. He stepped into the starting lineup last season and rushed for a team-high 821 yards while scoring six touchdowns.
Seattle is more worried about slowing down Steve Smith, a feat no other team has been able to accomplish. Smith has 22 catches for 302 yards, four rushes for 38 yards and four of Carolina’s five postseason touchdowns.
Seattle is a more complete team, especially with Foster on the sideline. However, Carolina has the edge when it comes to playoff experience. The Panthers are also built for the road, where they have won eight of 10 this year.
Carolina has cashed in 11 of its last 12 as underdogs and nine of 10 as road short-enders. The Panthers have got the green in seven straight as road dogs of seven points or less. Conversely, the Seahawks are 8-25 as home favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points.
Seattle was a perfect 8-0 on its home field this year (6-2 against the spread). The Seahawks’ last home loss occurred against St. Louis in the 2004 playoffs, 27-20.
Most offshore books opened the Seahawks as six-point favorites, with the total set at 44.
Everybody was expecting to see Peyton Manning against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship shootout. Denver's Jake Plummer and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger threw a monkey wrench into those plans when they outplayed their more-heralded counterparts last weekend.
The Steelers overcame a bungled call and a fumbled ball to head to their sixth and least-anticipated trip to the AFC title game in a dozen years under coach Bill Cowher.
Pittsburgh had won only two road playoff games in 30 years prior to this season, and none under Cowher. The Steelers now have won a pair in two weeks.
Pittsburgh is playing with a swagger that was missing when it was 15-1 and the top-seed in last year's playoffs.
The Steelers will have a tough time coping with a Denver defense that forced the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots into five turnovers. The Broncos allowed only 16.1 points per game and just 85.2 rushing yards per game. They also forced 16 fumbles along with their 20 interceptions.
Cowher is hoping Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker can dent that defense often enough to avoid putting Roethlisberger in too many third-and-long predicaments. Pittsburgh has succeeded at that in its first two playoff victories. Roethlisberger has put up a 124.4 quarterback rating with only one interception.
Denver operates in much the same manner, running the ball for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 158.7 per game. The Broncos have used that running game to keep Plummer from having to win games on his own.
Though Plummer has taken a lot of heat as an inconsistent player, he was only intercepted eight times this season and has finally won a playoff game.
Denver was only 29th this season against the pass. However, in the all-important category of points allowed, its opponents have scored only 50 in the past five games combined. During that stretch, teams have tried and failed to beat the Broncos with the pass.
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Most offshore books opened Denver as three-point favorites, with the total set at 41 1/2.
That's the scenario Sunday when Denver hosts the Panthers and Seattle welcomes Carolina in the NFL's conference championship round.
As the NFC's No. 1 seed, the Seahawks expected to be in the NFC title game. However, their opponent is more of a surprise after fifth-seeded Carolina upset second-seeded Chicago in the divisional playoff round.
But a trip to Seattle figures to be far from intimidating for a Carolina team that stunned the Eagles two years ago in Philadelphia to advance to the Super Bowl.
Shaun Alexander is the player on the spot for the Seahawks. The league's MVP must come up with big in a playoff game at some point. He left the Washington game with a concussion after accumulating six yards on nine carries. Alexander has run for 1,880 yards and scored 27 touchdowns this season.
Carolina must put the ball in the hands of Nick Gongs after DeShaun Foster broke his ankle last week versus Chicago.
Goings is a career backup who carried the ball just 37 times in the regular season. Panthers coach John Fox knows what to expect from Goings. He stepped into the starting lineup last season and rushed for a team-high 821 yards while scoring six touchdowns.
Seattle is more worried about slowing down Steve Smith, a feat no other team has been able to accomplish. Smith has 22 catches for 302 yards, four rushes for 38 yards and four of Carolina’s five postseason touchdowns.
Seattle is a more complete team, especially with Foster on the sideline. However, Carolina has the edge when it comes to playoff experience. The Panthers are also built for the road, where they have won eight of 10 this year.
Carolina has cashed in 11 of its last 12 as underdogs and nine of 10 as road short-enders. The Panthers have got the green in seven straight as road dogs of seven points or less. Conversely, the Seahawks are 8-25 as home favorites of 3 1/2 to seven points.
Seattle was a perfect 8-0 on its home field this year (6-2 against the spread). The Seahawks’ last home loss occurred against St. Louis in the 2004 playoffs, 27-20.
Most offshore books opened the Seahawks as six-point favorites, with the total set at 44.
Everybody was expecting to see Peyton Manning against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship shootout. Denver's Jake Plummer and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger threw a monkey wrench into those plans when they outplayed their more-heralded counterparts last weekend.
The Steelers overcame a bungled call and a fumbled ball to head to their sixth and least-anticipated trip to the AFC title game in a dozen years under coach Bill Cowher.
Pittsburgh had won only two road playoff games in 30 years prior to this season, and none under Cowher. The Steelers now have won a pair in two weeks.
Pittsburgh is playing with a swagger that was missing when it was 15-1 and the top-seed in last year's playoffs.
The Steelers will have a tough time coping with a Denver defense that forced the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots into five turnovers. The Broncos allowed only 16.1 points per game and just 85.2 rushing yards per game. They also forced 16 fumbles along with their 20 interceptions.
Cowher is hoping Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker can dent that defense often enough to avoid putting Roethlisberger in too many third-and-long predicaments. Pittsburgh has succeeded at that in its first two playoff victories. Roethlisberger has put up a 124.4 quarterback rating with only one interception.
Denver operates in much the same manner, running the ball for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 158.7 per game. The Broncos have used that running game to keep Plummer from having to win games on his own.
Though Plummer has taken a lot of heat as an inconsistent player, he was only intercepted eight times this season and has finally won a playoff game.
Denver was only 29th this season against the pass. However, in the all-important category of points allowed, its opponents have scored only 50 in the past five games combined. During that stretch, teams have tried and failed to beat the Broncos with the pass.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
Most offshore books opened Denver as three-point favorites, with the total set at 41 1/2.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
NFL Notebook
As is often the case in the NFL playoffs, home field advantage was an important factor in deciding Saturday's games.
Although they lost Shaun Alexander to an injury, the Seattle Seahawks kicked-off the weekend with a 20-10 win and 'cover' over the Redskins. Despite a 13-point fourth quarter, the game still fell well below the closing total of 40 1/2.
The nightcap at Denver also finished below the total of 45 1/2, as the Broncos ended the Patriots' dreams of a 'three-peat' with a 27-13 victory. Uncharacteristically, New England shot itself in the foot by turning the ball over five times. Champ Bailey's 100-yard interception return (knocked out of bounds at the one-yard line) helped seal the Broncos' first victory since
Elway retired.
Sunday was a different story with the visitors scoring upset victories in both games. The Steelers, closing as 10-point underdogs, shocked Peyton Manning and the Colts with a stunning 21-18 upset victory. The Colts fell behind early and were thoroughly dominated. Thanks to a controversial instant-replay reversal and a Jerome Bettis goal-line fumble, Indianapolis very nearly battled back though. However, Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal in the final minute, sending the Steelers on their way to Denver.
Denver has won its last two meetings with Pittsburgh, but both games were decided by just a field goal. The Broncos are currently favored by 3 1/2 points at most shops. The 'total' sits at 41.
The Bears and Panthers had the lowest 'total' (30 1/2 or 31) of the playoffs thus far. The game sailed above the number though in a 29-21 Carolina victory, sending the Panthers to Seattle to play in the NFC championship game for the second time in three years. The Panthers lost DeShaun Foster to injury but that didn't slow them down, as Jake Delhomme threw for 319 yards (218 to Steve Smith) making the vaunted Bears' defense look ordinary.
The Panthers opened as six point underdogs vs. the Seahawks with a 'total' of 43 1/2. However, early money came in on the 'dog' and the line quickly dropped to plus four. The teams have split a pair of meetings this millennium. The Panthers won by 23 points in 2004. The Seahawks returned the favor with a six point victory, at Seattle, in 2004. Carolina earned the 'cover' in both games.
Let's take a quick look at last season's conference finals and see if we can learn anything that could be valuable for this week's big games.
New England at Pittsburgh
Favored by a field goal, the Patriots traveled to Pittsburgh and snapped the Steelers' 15-game winning streak. The Patriots, who intercepted Rothlisberger three times, jumped out to a commanding 24-3 lead en route to a 41-27 victory. While Rothlisberger looked like a rookie, Brady played with veteran-like poise, completing 14 of his 21 passes. The game flew 'over' the relatively low 'total' of 38.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
After three consecutive losses in the NFC championship game, the Eagles, listed as minus 4 1/2 point favorites, were not going to be denied a fourth time. The Eagles led only 14-10 at halftime. However, the defense was stifling in the second half and the home team would finish with a 27-10 victory. Playing in the cold, Vick was ineffective in his first playoff game, finishing with just 11 completions for 136 yards. He was also unable to run the ball, as his 26 rushing yards were less than the 33 yards he lost while being sacked four times. Playing without Terrell Owens, McNabb was 'workmanlike' in completing 17 of his 26 passes.
As is often the case in the NFL playoffs, home field advantage was an important factor in deciding Saturday's games.
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Although they lost Shaun Alexander to an injury, the Seattle Seahawks kicked-off the weekend with a 20-10 win and 'cover' over the Redskins. Despite a 13-point fourth quarter, the game still fell well below the closing total of 40 1/2.
The nightcap at Denver also finished below the total of 45 1/2, as the Broncos ended the Patriots' dreams of a 'three-peat' with a 27-13 victory. Uncharacteristically, New England shot itself in the foot by turning the ball over five times. Champ Bailey's 100-yard interception return (knocked out of bounds at the one-yard line) helped seal the Broncos' first victory since
Elway retired.
Sunday was a different story with the visitors scoring upset victories in both games. The Steelers, closing as 10-point underdogs, shocked Peyton Manning and the Colts with a stunning 21-18 upset victory. The Colts fell behind early and were thoroughly dominated. Thanks to a controversial instant-replay reversal and a Jerome Bettis goal-line fumble, Indianapolis very nearly battled back though. However, Mike Vanderjagt missed a field goal in the final minute, sending the Steelers on their way to Denver.
Denver has won its last two meetings with Pittsburgh, but both games were decided by just a field goal. The Broncos are currently favored by 3 1/2 points at most shops. The 'total' sits at 41.
The Bears and Panthers had the lowest 'total' (30 1/2 or 31) of the playoffs thus far. The game sailed above the number though in a 29-21 Carolina victory, sending the Panthers to Seattle to play in the NFC championship game for the second time in three years. The Panthers lost DeShaun Foster to injury but that didn't slow them down, as Jake Delhomme threw for 319 yards (218 to Steve Smith) making the vaunted Bears' defense look ordinary.
The Panthers opened as six point underdogs vs. the Seahawks with a 'total' of 43 1/2. However, early money came in on the 'dog' and the line quickly dropped to plus four. The teams have split a pair of meetings this millennium. The Panthers won by 23 points in 2004. The Seahawks returned the favor with a six point victory, at Seattle, in 2004. Carolina earned the 'cover' in both games.
Let's take a quick look at last season's conference finals and see if we can learn anything that could be valuable for this week's big games.
New England at Pittsburgh
Favored by a field goal, the Patriots traveled to Pittsburgh and snapped the Steelers' 15-game winning streak. The Patriots, who intercepted Rothlisberger three times, jumped out to a commanding 24-3 lead en route to a 41-27 victory. While Rothlisberger looked like a rookie, Brady played with veteran-like poise, completing 14 of his 21 passes. The game flew 'over' the relatively low 'total' of 38.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
After three consecutive losses in the NFC championship game, the Eagles, listed as minus 4 1/2 point favorites, were not going to be denied a fourth time. The Eagles led only 14-10 at halftime. However, the defense was stifling in the second half and the home team would finish with a 27-10 victory. Playing in the cold, Vick was ineffective in his first playoff game, finishing with just 11 completions for 136 yards. He was also unable to run the ball, as his 26 rushing yards were less than the 33 yards he lost while being sacked four times. Playing without Terrell Owens, McNabb was 'workmanlike' in completing 17 of his 26 passes.
As is often the case in the NFL playoffs, home field advantage was an important factor in deciding Saturday's games.
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Monday, January 16, 2006
Weekend in Review
EIGHT of the NFL's 11 playoff games are in the books and what have we learned? Home teams are just 3-5 SU and ATS, with all eight SU winners of the games, also covering the pointspread. The closest any SU winner came to NOT covering the pointspread was Seattle (closed as a 9 1/2-point favorite), in its 20-10 win over Washington this past Saturday. Over/under bettors have seen SIX of the eight games go under the total, with the highest-scoring game being the one with the lowest-posted total (naturally!). That would be Carolina's 29-21 win over Chicago yesterday, a game which saw its total close at 31.
The championship games are set for next Sunday with Pittsburgh at Denver (Broncos are 3 1/2-point favorites with a total of 41) and Carolina at Seattle (Seahawks are 4 1/2-point favorites with a total of 43 1/2). Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 to advance to a conference title game since the league expanded to its current playoff format in 1990. Ten other No. 6 seeds had tried, including Washington this year, before the Steelers broke through. As for the Broncos, Denver is 12-2 in its playoff history at home, compared to a 3-8 record on the road.
Carolina has now won four straight playoff games on the road (tying an NFL record) and will face a Seattle team which just ended a 21-year drought between playoff wins by beating the Redskins on Saturday. This will be just the second conference championship game for Seattle in its 30-year history (lost the '83 AFC title game to the LA Raiders 30-14) and its first-ever at home. The Panthers, in the league since just 1995, will be making their third NFC title-game appearance.
The NBA features a 12-game schedule on Martin Luther King Day, beginning with games tipping at 1:05 ET. TNT has a great doubleheader, with the Spurs taking on the Grizzlies at 8:05 ET and then the Heat at the Lakers at 10:35 ET. Memphis is the league's top defensive team allowing 86.7 PPG and San Antonio ranks second at 88.8 PPG. These teams just met Saturday night in San Antonio with the Spurs winning 80-79. However, using the Carolina/Chicago "theory", the final will probably come 110-109. San Antonio is favored by 1 1/2-points with a total of 169. It's Shaq vs Kobe in the nightcap, for the fourth time since they 'split'. Miami's won the three previous meetings but LA's covered two of the three. The Heat are favored by 3 1/2-points with a total of 204.
Tonight's college basketball schedule features a 15-game card, including a tripleheader on ESPN. Kansas, which lost Saturday to Kansas St for the first time in 32 meetings, is at Missouri at 7:00 ET. The Jayhawks are favored by 2 1/2-points with a total of 129. Connecticut (14-1) is at Syracuse (15-2) at 9:00 ET, where the Huskies are a 1 1/2-point choice, even though Syracuse is on a 12-game winning streak (total is 148 1/2). At midnight ET, Gonzaga hosts Loyola-Marymount, as the Bulldogs look to extend their home winning streak to 32 straight games. Led by the nation's leading scorer, Adam Morrison (28.2 PPG), Gonzaga is favored by 18 points with a total of 155.
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The championship games are set for next Sunday with Pittsburgh at Denver (Broncos are 3 1/2-point favorites with a total of 41) and Carolina at Seattle (Seahawks are 4 1/2-point favorites with a total of 43 1/2). Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 to advance to a conference title game since the league expanded to its current playoff format in 1990. Ten other No. 6 seeds had tried, including Washington this year, before the Steelers broke through. As for the Broncos, Denver is 12-2 in its playoff history at home, compared to a 3-8 record on the road.
Carolina has now won four straight playoff games on the road (tying an NFL record) and will face a Seattle team which just ended a 21-year drought between playoff wins by beating the Redskins on Saturday. This will be just the second conference championship game for Seattle in its 30-year history (lost the '83 AFC title game to the LA Raiders 30-14) and its first-ever at home. The Panthers, in the league since just 1995, will be making their third NFC title-game appearance.
The NBA features a 12-game schedule on Martin Luther King Day, beginning with games tipping at 1:05 ET. TNT has a great doubleheader, with the Spurs taking on the Grizzlies at 8:05 ET and then the Heat at the Lakers at 10:35 ET. Memphis is the league's top defensive team allowing 86.7 PPG and San Antonio ranks second at 88.8 PPG. These teams just met Saturday night in San Antonio with the Spurs winning 80-79. However, using the Carolina/Chicago "theory", the final will probably come 110-109. San Antonio is favored by 1 1/2-points with a total of 169. It's Shaq vs Kobe in the nightcap, for the fourth time since they 'split'. Miami's won the three previous meetings but LA's covered two of the three. The Heat are favored by 3 1/2-points with a total of 204.
Tonight's college basketball schedule features a 15-game card, including a tripleheader on ESPN. Kansas, which lost Saturday to Kansas St for the first time in 32 meetings, is at Missouri at 7:00 ET. The Jayhawks are favored by 2 1/2-points with a total of 129. Connecticut (14-1) is at Syracuse (15-2) at 9:00 ET, where the Huskies are a 1 1/2-point choice, even though Syracuse is on a 12-game winning streak (total is 148 1/2). At midnight ET, Gonzaga hosts Loyola-Marymount, as the Bulldogs look to extend their home winning streak to 32 straight games. Led by the nation's leading scorer, Adam Morrison (28.2 PPG), Gonzaga is favored by 18 points with a total of 155.
Buy your picks at Who2beton or at Don Best
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